Can You Have Enough Quality Starters?

It's pretty much impossible to have too much starting pitching. The Royals problem is three-fold. First, the Royals haven't been able to develop their own starting pitching. Second, the Royals can't keep their pitchers healthy or draft risky pitchers who are injury prone (Matt Campbell and Kyle Snyder). Finally, the Royals have done a very poor job of signing free agent starters. The combination of these three factors has led to a dismal rotation over the past few years. This season is no exception.

The Royals started out with a rotation of Lima, Hernandez, Greinke, Bautista, and Anderson. Wood, Gobble, Jensen, and Howell were also after rotation spots, so the depth looked alright. Then, the rotation began its annual collapse. Bautista and Anderson are most likely done for the year with injuries. Lima has the second worst starter's ERA in the American League. Greinke, our future ace, has the fourth worst starter's ERA in the American League. Hernandez has been somewhat inconsistent, but has been a solid No. 3 starter. Carrasco has been the Royals' most consistent starter. He has a minor injury at the moment. But, relying on a newly converted starter and a starter coming off of TJ surgery is pretty risky. The Royals also rushed JP Howell to the majors to fill a spot in the imploding rotation. This seems to happen every year. What are the Royals' doing wrong?

I'm not sure why the Royals haven't been able to develop quality starting pitching. The A's are probably the best example of a small-market team that has developed their own pitching. They had the Big Three of course and also have developed another Cy Young caliber pitcher in Rich Harden and two other good young pitchers. Is the pitching coach the problem? Well, the Royals have used numerous pitching coaches and that hasn't solved the problem. Injuries have certainly prevented many Royals' pitchers with good stuff from becoming good starters (Affeldt, Snyder, Asencio) and are threatening Bautista's promising career as well. The Royals should take a hard look at their conditioning program for pitchers. The Royals failure to find good free agent starters has hurt as well. Lima, Anderson, May, Lopez were all miserable failures. Part of the problem in the case of Anderson and May was signing them off of career seasons that were basically a fluke in their inconsistent careers as 5th starters. Lima and Lopez were just flat out dumb signings. The Royals need to stay away from the below-average starters who are on the downside of their careers.

The Royals are basically in a tough spot. It'd be nice to get rid of Lima, but that isn't going to happen unless we acquire another underachieving starter in a trade for him. Assuming no one else gets hurt and Carrasco and Snyder enter the rotation within the next week, the rotation for the rest of the year would look like: Hernandez, Carrasco, Greinke, Lima, Snyder. Howell clearly needs some more time in the minors and it could really hurt his development to keep him up here for the rest of the year. If the Royals traded Lima, they'd have to get creative because there wouldn't be any starters left if someone else gets injured. The Royals could put Gobble or Wood in the rotation, but both have struggled as starters. The Royals could promote Tankersley or Bass from the minors and hope for the best. I hope the Royals don't look to A ball for a starter, even though that's where the organization's only SP prospects are.

The Royals have very poor starting pitching depth in the minors. Billy Buckner and Luis Cota are the only grade "C" or better SP prospects in the minors. This should be the Royals' number one objective in their midseason trades. You can't win with out starting pitching and you cannot have enough of it. The Royals signed their third-round pick, Chris Nicoll, a college starting pitcher. Not signing him could have really put the Royals in a bad spot, as they didn't draft many other starters.

Sorry for all of the negativity, but the starting rotation will make or break the Royals' youth movement. The Royals need to take some steps toward fixing the rotation.

Farm System: Strengths and Weaknesses

Looking at the Top 20 prospects from yesterday, there are some interesting observations. First of all, here's a breakdown of the Royals' depth and relative quality of prospects at each position.

Corner IF:
# of prospects in Top 20: 4
Ranking of the prospects: 2, 14, 18, 19
Average Ranking: 13
Location in the Minors: 2 Low A, 1 High A, 1 AA

Middle IF:
# of prospects in Top 20: 5
Ranking of the prospects: 6, 7, 10, 16, 20
Average Ranking: 12
Location in the Minors: 2 S Season, 2 AA, 1 AAA

Catcher:
# of prospects in Top 20: 1
Ranking of prospects: 11
Average Ranking: 11
Location in the Minors: 1 High A

Outfielders:
# of prospects in Top 20: 4
Ranking of prospects: 1, 4, 5. 9
Average Ranking: 5
Location in the Minors: 1 Low A, 2 High A, 1 AA

Starting Pitching:
# of prospects in Top 20: 4
Ranking of prospects: 3, 8, 13, 15
Average Ranking: 10
Location in the Minors: 2 Low A, 1 High A, 1 AA

Relief Pitching:
# of prospects in Top 20: 2
Ranking of prospects: 12, 17
Average Ranking: 14
Location in the Minors: 1 Low A, 1 AA

The most interesting observation is that the outfield depth and quality is the strongest compared to the other positions. So, why is Baird so obsessed with finding a young corner outfielder? Well, the Royals lack good power in the middle of the lineup. But, with Gordon, Huber, Lubanski and Butler likely to be in the majors or one stop away next year, it looks like the Royals will have 4 potential impact bats.

How many good starters do we have? Our best pitching prospects are in A ball and only one pitching prospect profiles as a frontline starter. This is the area that Baird should be focusing on. The Rangers can flat out rake, but are in 2nd place in the AL West and frequently find themselves there. What's one power hitting corner outfielder going to do? The Rangers have 7 players with more home runs than the Royals' home run leader. Adding one power bat is going to make a huge difference. A good starting rotation is the first step toward building a contender. The Royals' potentially great bullpen with Sisco, Burgos, Affeldt, MacDougal, and Nunez is wasted if they are always pitching in meaningless games after the starter gives up 7 runs in 3 innings.

My post about the farm system's strengths and weaknesses has turned into a rant about starting pitching. Overall, the Royals infield depth is pretty good. With Teahan, Berroa, and Gotay already looking like serviceable regulars and good depth in the farm system, this isn't an area of concern. Add in Gordon and Huber and the Royals have a couple of impact players at the corner infield spots. Catcher is still a problem, especially with Buck struggling offensively. If Buck can get on base more and hit 15 HRs, he'll be a solid catcher for the Royals. Part of his low CS% is probably attributed to the Royals' pitcher's failure to hold runners and the starter's underwhelming velocity. The other part has to do with Buck's slow release. There aren't many relief pitching prospects in the minors. Most of them are already here and we usually have plenty of failed starters to convert into relievers.

The farm system is still pretty strong considering the number of players the Royals have graduated over the past couple of years. It's still below-average. Some good trades could certainly help get the farm system back to where it needs to be. Anytime an organization has a prospect who projects as a utility infielder in the top 10, the farm system needs some work.

Midseason Review: Farm System

I postponed the individual player review until tomorrow. Instead, here's a review of the performance of the farm team and of the Royals' top prospects.

Omaha (41-50) 13th place out of 16 teams
Wichita (9-8 second half) 1st place out of 4 teams
High Desert (10-8 second half) 1st place out of 4 teams
Burlington (9-10 second half) tied 4th place out of 8 teams

Here are the top 20 prospects in the Royals' organization. In order to make the list, the player must be in the minors at this time.

Top 20 prospects:

1. Billy Butler 19/LF: Butler is the youngest player in the California League and is among the league leaders in batting average, OBP, HRs, RBIs and pretty much any offensive stat that doesn't require good speed on the basepaths. Butler is the Royals' best prospect since Zack Greinke. Butler's power should eventually rate an 80 on the scouting scale (very close right now) and his hitting ability won't be far behind. Butler projects to become a .300+ hitter with enough power to break Balboni's home run record. Butler has significantly decreased the number of errors he's made since moving to LF and his arm is good enough to play in RF. Whether or not his defensive abilities and range are good enough remains to be foreseen. As a LF or DH, Butler bat is his greatest asset and should make him a star. Butler will be in the top 10 of every prospect list next year.

High Desert (High A) 281 ABs .359/.436/.673 22 HRs 71 RBIs

2. Justin Huber 23/1B: Huber hasn't shown any signs of struggling after ending last season with a season-ending injury. Huber is having a solid season and has torn up AA pitching just like last year. Huber should develop into a .300+ hitter with 20-25 HR power. Huber has great on-base skills as well. Huber's defense still needs some work, but his bat is ready for Kansas City.

Wichita (AA) 277 ABs .339/.435/.539 10 HRs 55 RBIs

3. Luis Cota 19/RHP: Cota one of the youngest players in the Midwest League and he's having a very good season. Cota has a mid-90s fastball with good movement and a slider that should become a plus pitch. He's also developing a changeup. Cota's strikeout numbers are very impressive, averaging just under 1 strikeout per inning. Cota struggled throughout June, with his ERA increasing from under 2 to approaching 4. But, Cota pitched 6 shutout innings on Sunday and may be getting back on track. Cota could eventually be a No. 1 or 2 starter in the majors.

Burlington (Low A) 3-4 3.65 ERA 93 2/3 IP 42 BBs 86 SOs

4. Mitch Maier 23/CF: Maier is having a productive season and earned a promotion to AA. Maier has hit a ton of doubles, with 39 already. Maier's tools rate average or above-average in just about every area, possessing good ability as a hitter, baserunner, and fielding. Main concern with Maier is his plate discipline, as he has drawn just 18 walks in 318 ABs. If that improves, Maier could be in the big leagues as early as 2006.

High Desert (High A) 211 ABs .336/.370/.583 8 HRs 32 RBIs
Wichita (AA) 131 ABs .260/.299/.449 3 HRs 21 RBIs

5. Chris Lubanski 20/OF: Lubanski got off to a tough start, but has rebounded nicely. Lubanski has hit 20 HRs already and stolen 10 bases in 10 attempts. Lubanski has above-average power and speed, which the Royals could certainly use. Lubanski projects more as a LF because he doesn't get very good reads in CF and his arm is below-average. Lubanski still has a lot of improvements to make, especially with making consistent contact. He's already struck out 96 times in 336 ABs and walked just 21.

High Desert (high A) 336 ABs .274/.318/.530 20 HRs 69 RBIs 10 SBs

6. Donnie Murphy 22/2B: Murphy and Gotay are pretty similar players and the consensus is that Murphy is a better fielder than Gotay. Murphy is showing a bit more power this year, with 7 HRs in 193 ABs. His offensive numbers are very similar to Gotay's at each level of the minors. Murphy has been playing more shortstop as well this year. So, if Berroa's struggles continue, a move to short could happen.

Wichita (AA) 193 ABs .295/.338/.461 7 HRs 28 RBIs

7. Mike Aviles 24/IF: Aviles projects as a very good utility infielder. Aviles has shown good gap power, hitting 40 doubles last year and 24 doubles this year. He's having his best season as a pro so far at Wichita this year. Aviles needs to reduce the number of errors he makes. He has a good arm, but doesn't have great range.

Wichita (AA) 326 ABs .291/.332/.460 24 2Bs 9 HRs 56 RBIs

8. Billy Buckner 21/RHP: Buckner has moved quickly through the Royals' system, although not as fast as Howell. Buckner earned a quick promotion to High Desert after making 11 starts with an ERA of 3.88. Buckner has pitched pretty well at High Desert considering the ballpark factor and advanced hitting compared to the Midwest League. His K/BB numbers are solid, just over 3. Buckner has good command of a fastball that sits in around 89-91 mph. Buckner also has a very good curve and a changeup that is being developed. Buckner could eventully be a No. 4 starter.

Burlington (Low A) 3-7 3.88 ERA 60 1/3 IP 17 BBs 60 SOs
High Desert (High A) 3-3 4.83 ERA 41 IP 13 BBs 38 SOs

9. Brian McFall 21/RF: McFall is having a decent season for Burlington, especially after struggling during the first two months. McFall has a great arm, above-average speed, above-average raw power, and is a very good fielder. McFall has moved slower than the Royals would have liked, but his potential keeps him high on this list.

Burlington (Low A) 235 ABs .243/.325/.391 12 2Bs 7 HRs 35 RBIs 9 SBs

10. Jeffrey Bianchi 18/SS: Bianchi is off to a great start in the Arizona Rookie League. He has 30 hits in his first 60 ABs, 12 of them for extra bases. Bianchi has very good speed. It looks like the Royals got a steal with their second-round pick. Bianchi has made Baseball America's Hot Prospect Sheet twice already, and they were very impressed with him:
"A second-round pick out of a Pennsylvania high school, one scout said that right now, Bianchi is every bit the hitter that No. 1 overall pick Justin Upton is. That scout looks prophetic right now"

Royals (AZL) 60 ABs .500/.558/.883 4 HRs 22 RBIs

11. Adam Donachie 21/C: Donachie is having his best season as a pro. Donachie is a good season at High Desert. Donachie is a very good defensive catcher and has a plus-arm and will have success throwing out runners. Donachie is good enough defensively to make it to the majors, even if he doesn't become a great hitter. The offensive part of his game is still very unpolished and is an unknown. The Royals will get a better idea of what his abilities are at Wichita.

High Desert (High A) 205 ABs .283/.344/.483 8 HRs 29 RBIs

12. Jonah Bayliss 25/RHP: Bayliss pitched well in his debut in Kansas City. He's having a good season at Wichita, with a 2.50 ERA and 7 saves. Bayliss is averaging over 1K per inning. Bayliss has a low 90s fastball that he throws from a three-quarters arm slot. He also has a decent curve, but needs to improve his command of it.

Wichita (AA) 1-2 2.50 ERA 50 1/3 IP 22 BBs 53 SOs

13. Matt Campbell 22/LHP: Campbell has fought injury problems since arriving in the organization. Campbell's stuff is as good as Howell's. Campbell has a fastball that sits around 90 mph and has good tailing action. He also has a plus curve. Campbell's problems this year have been his control, as he's walked 37 batters in 63 2/3 innings.

Burlington (Low A) 1-5 4.66 ERA 63 2/3 IP 37 BBs 48 SOs

14. Kila Kaaihue 21/1B: Kaaihue is having a good season at High Desert. His OBP is much improved from last year and he's hitting for average as well. Kaaihue still lacks the power needed to be a full-time first basemen in the majors and projects more as a part-time player at this point.

High Desert (High A) .317/.428/.492 12 HRs 47 RBIs

15. Brian Bass 23/RHP: Bass struggled for the first half of the season, but has put together a string of quality starts over the past month. Bass has a low 90s fastball that gets a lot of groundballs and a quality curveball. Bass could compete for the No. 5 spot in the rotation next year or even replace a starter this year if injuries continue to decimate the Royals' rotation.

Wichita (AA) 8-4 5.35 ERA 106 IP 39 BBs 63 SOs

16. Andres Blanco 21/SS: Blanco has battled injury after injury this year. He still isn't showing much ability offensively, although he hit his first HR as a professional. His defensive abilities are outstanding and he's a gold-glove waiting to happen. But, he'll need to learn how to at least get on-base at a reasonable rate.

Omaha (AAA) 51 ABs .196/.268/.314 1 HR 2 RBIs

17. Chad Blackwell 22/RP: Blackwell is having a good season at Burlington. He's struck out 48 batters in 40 1/3 innings. Blackwell doesn't have overwhelming stuff, but has good command of his fastball and slider. Blackwell changes speeds well and could become a setup man in the majors.

Burlington (low A) 7-1 2.23 ERA 40 1/3 IP 17 BBs 48 SOs

18. Mario Lisson 21/3B: Lisson is a potential 5-tool player. He's stolen 23 bases in 27 attempts and has 25 extra base hits in 260 ABs. Lisson also walks a lot, which has led to a good OBP of .386.

Burlington (low A) 260 ABs.250/.386/.408 6 HRs 36 RBIs 23 SBs

19. Miguel Vega 19/1B: Vega has good raw power. He's been limited this year because of injuries and only has 114 ABs. He had 10 extra bases hits during that span. Vega also has the skills to be a good defender at first base.

Burlington (low A) .246/.287/.386 2 HRs 10 RBIs

20. Chris McConnell 19/SS: McConnell is off to a very good start at Idaho Falls. McConnell has very good range as a shortstop. He's shown the ability to hit for a high average, hitting above .330 last year and this year as well.

Idaho Falls (Rookie Pioneer League) 80 ABs .375/.404/.550 2 HRs 14 RBIs

Other non-prospects/fringe prospects to watch:

1. Matt Ford: Acquired from the Brewers, the lefty has a 0.93 ERA in 9 2/3 IP with the Royals. Ford is a lefty who had a lot of success in the minors and decent success in the big leagues.

2. Dennis Tankersley: Tankersley has great stuff and a lot of movement on his fastball. He's struck out 65 batters in 74 IP at Omaha. He has a 4.84 ERA, but has pitched much better over the past month. He could be a candidate for a spot start if the Royals need another starter.

3. Paul Phillips: Phillips may be the Royals' backup catcher next year. Phillips has 17 doubles and 4 HRs in 267 ABs.

4. Colt Griffin: Yes, Colt Griffin. The only reason he makes this list is because he has a 3.72 ERA and a terrible K/BB ratio. His fastball-slider combination could be a lethal one if he ever develops command of it. More likely, he'll be Wichita's version of MacDougal.

Midseason Update

The Royals were no surprise so far. Everyone expected them to be a bad, but young team and that's exactly what we've seen. The Royals have been pretty much bad at everything. They are only better than the Seattle Mariners in OPS. The Royals are pretty much in the bottom 5 in every other offensive category. They are also second-to-last in SB%. The Royals are also in the bottom 5 in ERA, WHIP, and K/BB ratio. In summary, the Royals have been bad at everything, and it's translated into the second-worst record in baseball. Hard to win games when you don't have any team speed, can't hit, and can't pitch.

So, is there hope? I would cautiously say yes. The Royals basically have enough players to fill the roster next year with mostly young pre-arbitration players. This will give the Royals plenty of room to sign some free agents to fix some weaknesses and add more talent in general. The Royals have a lot of young players. But, will they be any good? The core of position players (Costa, DeJesus, Berroa, Teahan, Gotay, Buck) already here aren't going to fill the lineup with future All-Stars, but should give the Royals a solid foundation of players to build upon. If Gordon signs soon and the Royals send him to AA, the Royals could have 3 impact bats at AA with Butler, Huber, and Gordon. The Royals will also have Murphy, Maier, and Aviles who should be ready for next year and profile as solid major leaguers as well. It'll be interesting to see how the Royals approach the offseason and how they balance the "youth movement" with some proven veteran talent.

The Royals' pitching hasn't performed well this year. The starting rotation has been awful. The Royals' future ace, Zack Greinke, got off to a good start, but has really struggled for the past month. Jose Lima has been terrible. The Royals' promoted JP Howell out of desperation for another starter and he has pitched well, except for a great debut. Brian Anderson and Denny Bautista both have been sidelined by season-ending injuries. The rotation did have a couple of pleasant surprises though. Runelvys Hernandez is having a solid season and has turned out to be the "innings-eater" that Baird was seeking. DJ Carrasco has become the Royals' best starter, with 8 quality-starts in 11 outings.

The bullpen has been inconsistent, but may be the Royals' strength. Mike MacDougal has pitched well as the closer, saving 11 of 13 games. MacDougal's control and poise has been much better this year. But, hard to be convinced he'll keep it up. Affeldt spent a good chunk of the first half on the DL, but pitched well in relief. The Royals' Rule V Pick Andrew Sisco has been the Royals' biggest surprise in the bullpen. Sisco is averaging over 1 K/IP and has a 2.72 ERA. Burgos and Nunez both throw in the upper 90s and have shown flashes of potential. Mike Wood has been solid in the middle relief role. Overall, the bullpen looks like it should become a strength for the Royals over the next few years. Too bad the rotation doesn't have many good arms.

Overall, the Royals' first half has gone about expected. The young players are getting experience and hopefully they will be better for it. It will be tough for the Royals to improve in the second half. If Sweeney stays healthy and Greinke pitches like he's capable, the Royals could be a lot better. If the Royals have 3 league-average or better starters (Carrasco, Greinke, Hernandez), they'll win a lot more games. I'll breakdown each player's first half performances tomorrow.

Series Finale

The Royals' new ace

The Royals lost the final game of a 4-game series with the Minnesota Twins. I attended my second game in a row at Kauffman. The game was a tribute to the Negro Leagues. The Royals wore the jerseys of the Kansas City Monarchs. The Royals didn't do a lot else though, which was a bit disappointing. Buck O'Neil had to leave early and a few kids throw out the first pitch. They did honor some players from the Negro Leagues during the pre-game ceremonies, but I thought they could have done more.

The game itself was reminiscent of a baseball game before the hitter's era. Carrasco and Silva dueled on the mound through 7 innings. Carrasco pitched well, as he has since becoming a starter. Right now, DJ Carrasco is our ace. Probably not a good thing, but Carrasco at least gives the Royals' a chance to win each game and has a record of 4-3. Carrasco doesn't have overwhelming stuff, throwing his sinker in the upper 80s and occasionally mixing in a curveball. But, he gets a lot of groundballs and weak popups. Carrasco also finds his way of jams without giving up many runs. Carrasco allowed 10 hits, but only gave up 2 runs. That's pretty tough to do.

Mike Sweeney homered in the 4th inning, making the score 2-1. The Royals tied the game 2-2 in the ninth inning on Mike's second homer of the day. Affeldt and MacDougal held the Twins scoreless in the eighth and ninth. Mike Wood kept the game scoreless until the 12th inning. Wood gave up two 2-out singles in the 12th inning. Then, Torii Hunter shattered his bat with 3/4 of the bat flying Teahan's way. Teahan misplayed the otherwise routine grounder. It was a tough play, but certainly makeable for a good defensive third basemen.

The Twins looked much better today. When you think of the Twins teams that have won the division over the past 3 seasons, the first thing that comes to mind is their pitching and defense. Carlos Silva was solid as usual for the Twins. Silva has walked only 5 batters all season. Silva's fastball sits at 89-91 mph and tops out at 93 mph. Silva got a lot of groundballs and solid defense behind him. The Twins took a couple of extra base hits away from the Royals. The Twins' bullpen is pretty good. Joe Nathan, other than today, has been a very good closer. Jesse Crain has a very good mid-90s fastball and slider. He'll be a very good setup man for Nathan.

Overall, it was another good game to watch. The Royals have their opportunities to win it. Gotay's failure to lay down a bunt to advance Berroa in the 8th inning may have cost the Royals a run. They didn't have much offense today, except for Sweeney who went 3 for 5 with 2 HRs.

Affeldt dominates Twins' hitters with his great curveball

Sweeney's Game-Tying HR in the 9th

Carlos Silva shutdown the Royals' offense

Twins' talented righty Jesse Crain