2005 Draft Update

The Royals 2005 draft appears to be a success as well. The Royals took the best player available with the #2 overall pick in the draft. Jeffrey Bianchi and Joseph Dickerson both appeared to be signability picks, but have done very well so far. The Royals didn't have any extra compensation picks, so it appears they did pretty well. However, the Royals still need to sign Gordon. Not doing so would make the draft an absolute disaster.

1-2: Alex Gordon/3B: Gordon, if he signs, will provide the Royals with another All-Star caliber talent. Gordon will likely start at High Desert or Wichita once he signs. The hold up may be that Gordon wants a major league contract. I don't mind giving that too him. He'll be on the big league club quickly enough that options shouldn't be a big deal. I can think of 5-10 players on the 40-man roster that are readily expendable for a top talent like Gordon. Grade: A if he signs; F if he doesn't

2-50: Jeffrey Bianchi/SS: Bianchi appears to be an excellent pick by the Royals. Bianchi is tearing up the Arizona Rookie League and his hitting ability appears to be very advanced. One scout even said his hitting ability is on par with the first-overall pick in the draft, Justin Upton.
Grade: A

2005 stats: (AZL) 88 ABs .420/.491/.773 6 HRs 28 RBIs

3-82: Chris Nicoll/RHP: Nicoll has good command and 3 average pitches (fastball, slider, curve) and the slider and maybe the fastball has plus potential. His excellent command will help him. Grade: B+

4-112: Joseph Dickerson/CF: Dickerson's video wasn't that impressive. He does have a good swing that produces line drives and has good speed. He's doing well in his debut in the Arizona Rookie League. Grade: B+

2005 stats: (AZL) 131 ABs .321/.405/.565 2 HRs 24 RBIs

5-142: Shawn Hayes/SS: Hayes' debut has been less than impressive. Supposedly a toolsy shortstop, so we'll see if those tools develop. Grade: D

2005 stats: (Pio) 48 ABs .208/.316/.292

6-172: Ryan DiPietro/LHP: Pietro has marginal fastball and two secondary pitches that could develop into plus pitches. He's struggling at Idaho Falls. Grade: B-

2005 stats: (Pio) 6.63 ERA 36 2/3 IP 10 BBs 30 Ks

7-202: Brent Fisher/LHP: Fisher has had a solid debut in the Arizona Rookie League. Fisher could develop two plus pitches and is developing his changeup. His command has been very good, with just 5 walks in 32 IP. Grade: A

2005 stats: (AZL) 4-1 3.38 ERA 32 IP 5 BBs 39 Ks

8-232: Nicholas Doscher/C: Doscher hasn't played much in the Arizona Rookie League. He has plus-potential defensively and should hit for power. Grade: B

9-262: Kiel Thibault/C: Thibault has good defensive skills behind the plate. He has a quick release and an accurate arm which will make up for near-average arm strength. Grade: A-

2005 stats: (Pio) 69 ABs .290/.357/.507 2 HRs 13 RBIs

10-292: Jeffrey Howell/C: Howell has had a good offensive debut in the Pioneer League. Seems to have pretty average skills all-around. Grade: B+

2005 stats: (Pio) 81 ABs .387/.457/.519 1 HR 14 RBIs

11-322: Michael Penn/RHP: Good control so far, with 20 strikeouts to just 4 walks

12-352: James Harkcom/RHP: Has pretty good stuff, but has been hit around so far

13-382: Andrew Larsen/CF: Posting a .270/.364/.475 line at Idaho Falls

14-412: Antonio Sabatini/CF: .276/.344/.405 at Idaho Falls

15-442: Brady Everett/C: Bat is his strength, could end up at 1B. Hitting .363/.451/.606

21-622: David Henninger/RHP: Henninger has pitched well at Idaho Falls, with a 3.86 ERA and 35 Ks in 35 IP.

Overall, the 2005 draft looks pretty good once Gordon signs. The Royals got two very good talents in Gordon and Bianchi. The Royals added 3 good college catchers who should add some depth to the system. The Royals did need to add some more pitching though. Overall, I'd give the draft a B+ as of now.

Draft Update: 2004

The 2004 draft looks like a success so far. Billy Butler is one of the best hitting prospects in the minors. JP Howell has already made his major league debut. Luis Cota is having a very good season at Burlington, even though he's one of the youngest pitchers in the league (technically, Cota belongs in the 2003 draft category). The Royals also did pretty well in the later rounds. The only real bust in the draft was Matt Campbell. He was doing alright at Burlington, but he's been shutdown due to injuries. Here's a list of the 2004 selections, scouting reports, and some videos from mlb.com:

2004 Scouting Reports and Videos

Here's a look at how the Royals 2004 draftees have done so far:

1-14. Billy Butler/LF (Round-Pick Player/Pos): Butler has been a great pick for the Royals. Butler has the most offensive upside of any Royals' prospect in quite some time. This was an example of a good signability pick. Grade: A+

2005 stats: High A 376 ABs .348/.438/.636 29 2Bs 25 HRs 91 RBIs

1-29. Matt Campbell/LHP: Campbell was the worst pick in the draft. Other than a plus curve, Campbell doesn't have much going for him. Campbell has been sidelined by injury problems. After watching his scouting video, I didn't see what the Royals saw in him. I wish the Royals would stop drafting soft-tossing lefties and hoping they become Jaime Moyer. Only 1 in 100 ever become Jaime Moyer. Grade: D

2005 stats: 1-5 4.66 ERA 63 2/3 IP 37 BBs 48 Ks

1-31: James Howell/LHP: Howell looks like a good pick by the Royals. Howell has 3 solid pitchers with his sinker, curve, and splitter. He also throws a 4-seam fastball touching 89 mph (and gets hit hard) and a changeup. Howell could eventually be a good No. 3 or 4 starter. His command needs improvement. Grade: A-

2005 stats (short version): High A and AA good, AAA and ML's not so good

2-55: Billy Buckner/RHP: Buckner is having a pretty good season, earning a quick promotion to High Desert. Buckner features a low 90s fastball, a plus curve, and a developing change. Should move quickly and enter the rotation by 2007. Grade: B+

2005 stats: (low A) 3-7 3.88 ERA 60 1/3 IP 17 BBs 60 Ks
(high A) 5-4 5.43 ERA 63 IP 25 BBs 62 Ks

2-63: Eric Cordier/RHP: Cordier has been shutdown due to injury problems, thankfully not to his arm. Cordier has good upside and projection with 3 potential plus pitches. Grade: B

3-85: Josh Johnson/SS: Johnson hasn't been terribly impressive. Johnson hasn't hit for average or power, but has shown good plate discipline. But, a later pick makes up for this one
Grade: C-

2005 stats: (AZL) 112 ABs .259/.387/.393
(Pio) 32 ABs .125/.222/.281

4-115: Nate Moore/RHP: Moore is doing alright at High Desert after a swift promotion from High A. Moore isn't overpowering. His arm slot is almost sidearm and he gets some sinking action on his fastball and has an average slurve. Moore could be a decent middle reliever down the road. Grade: B

2005 stats: (low A) 3.94 ERA 16 IP 5 BBs 21 Ks
(high A) 5.10 ERA 47 2/3 IP 20 BBs 24 Ks

5-145: Henry Barrera/RHP: Barrera has plenty of projection and already throws in the mid-90s. He's still very raw though. Grade: B

2005 stats: (AZL): 6.48 ERA 16 2/3 IP 7 BBs 16 Ks

6-175: Chad Blackwell/RHP: Blackwell has a unique sidearm delivery. His size and awkward delivery are similar to Leo Nunez, except for the arm slot and much slower fastball. Blackwell has a good slider and does a good job of locating his fastball. Blackwell is doing very well in his first full pro season. Grade: A-

2005 stats: (low A) 2.47 ERA 51 IP 23 BBs 54 Ks 11 SVs

7-205: Patrick Green/RHP: Green has a fastball that sits in the upper 80s with pretty good movement. Green also throws a hard and soft curve. He has good command and mixes his pitches effectively. Grade: A-

2005 stats: (low A) 4.09 ERA 103 IP 22 BBs 60 Ks
(high A) 0.60 ERA 15 IP 2 BBs 10 Ks

8-235: Edward Lucas/SS: Lucas is a speedy infielder with good speed and on-base skills. His defense needs some work though. Could be a utility guy in the future with useful speed off the bench. Grade: B

2005 stats: (low A) 315 ABs .311/.373/.368 23 SBs

9-265: Chris McConnell/SS: McConnell is having a great season at Idaho Falls. McConnell's strength is his defense with great range. He's done quite well offensively as well, posting a .339/.420/.452. Sean Rooney signed him as well as Bianchi. Rooney has a knack for drafting shortstops out of the northeast. Just don't let him draft any outfielders (Lubanski). Grade: A

2005 stats: (Pio) 162 ABs .340/.385/.519 3 HRs 19 RBIs

10-295: Bobby Beeson/LHP: Regressed this season. Grade: D

Other notables:

16-475: Patrick Hicklen/RHP: Hicklen uses an upper 80s fastball, fast and slow curve, and a slider. He's having a good season at Burlington, but his stuff probably won't take him to the big leagues.

27-805: Zane Carlson/RHP: Carlson pitched well at Idaho Falls and earned a promotion to Burlington. Carlson's fastball can hit 93 mph and has a good splitter.

34-1015: Kyle Crist/RHP: Crist's fastball can hit 93 mph and he has some projection left. Crist has good late tailing action on his fastball as well. He shows signs of developing a plus slider and curve. Best late-round pick by the Royals. Grade: A

Overall, the 2004 draft was a good one for the Royals. The Royals acquired a hitting phenom in Billy Butler who maybe has more raw power than any Royal in quite some time. The Royals added some pitching to a farm system that badly needed it. The Royals mixed in some high school pitchers with good upside (Cordier and Barrera) as well as polished college pitchers. Overall, the 2004 draft was one of the Royals best in quite some time.

Major Changes Are Needed

The Royals need to make some major changes in the organization. Since the Baird era began, the Royals are now 340-503 (.403). The signs of progress are becoming few and far between. Every game that I see Terrance Long and Joe McEwing in the lineup, it makes me wonder if the Royals even believe in the "youth movement". The young position players haven't made much progress, with the exception of David DeJesus (who had plenty of minor league seasoning). I can't say I have much confidence in Berroa, Gotay, Teahan, and Buck developing into even average major leaguers. Our rotation is awful. Greinke and Bautista have a lot of talent, but aren't putting it together yet. Hernandez seems to have peaked as a #3 starter and isn't showing signs of being more than that. The bullpen is promising with all of the power arms, but the awful rotation will prevent it from pitching in a lot of meaningful games.

Major Change #1: Fire Allard Baird

Before this year, I was never very impressed or displeased with the job Baird has done. The 2003 fluke the best part of his tenure, with the Royals winning 83 games. But, that was more a function of a horrible division that masked an otherwise mediocre team. In 2002 and 2004, the Royals lost 100+ games, setting franchise records for losses. The 2005 team isn't any better, on pace to lose 105 games. Most GMs would be fired if their teams consistently lose 100 games, but Baird's job seems very safe at the moment.

Here's the case for why Baird should be fired:

1. Free Agent Signing Failures: Baird has done a terrible job in free agency and this is an area he hasn't shown any improvement. Lima, Anderson, May, Sullivan, Gonzalez, Santiago, Lopez, Knoublach, and so forth have all failed to fill the club's needs. This is a critical part of the job. The Royals looked to make the 2004 team into a contender and Baird's free agent choices sealed the team's fate as the second worst team in baseball. With $25+ million available to be spent this offseason, I have a tough time trusting him with that much money.

2. Trades: Baird hasn't excelled in this area. The Damon trade netted Berroa and a overpaid closer. Berroa continues to frustrate Royals fans with his above-average power, fielding ability, and speed, but his awful plate discipline and lack of focus in the field make him a below-average shortstop. The Jermaine Dye trade was horrible. The Beltran trade is still an unknown, but the early returns aren't terribly promising. Mike Wood looks like a decent No. 5 starter or long reliever. Mark Teahan, if he develops power, will be a Joe Randa-type 3rd basemen. John Buck has struggled mightily, but has shown some promise. Overall, the Royals didn't acquire any impact players in any of these key deals. Baird has done well in some small deals: Huber for Bautista, Bautista for Grimsley, Nunez for Santiago, Graffanino for Cedeno and Ambres. Baird has also made some poor small deals, Graeme Lloyd for whoever, Eli Marrero for Jorge Vasquez, come to mind. Overall, I think Baird has done a below-average job in his trades.

3. Farm System: The Royals have a below-average farm system. The Royals have a few impact players in Huber, Butler, and Gordon (if he signs). But, the Royals don't any depth at catcher or 3rd base (unless Gordon signs), and most of the middle infield depth is still in the low minors. The Royals farm system is almost absent of pitching prospects. Luis Cota is the only starter who has significant upside. The lack of impact players and depth makes the farm system a weakness. Most baseball publications and websites have the Royals farm system ranked among the worst in baseball. Baird has done a terrible job in this area.

4. Drafts: Baird and his scouting department have improved their drafts during the Baird era. The 2000 draft netted DeJesus and Gotay. The 2001 draft was a complete disaster. The 2002 draft looks good, with Greinke, Murphy, and Bayliss already making it to the majors. The 2003 draft was outfielder heavy and hasn't paid any dividends yet. The Royals picked Chris Lubanski with their highest pick in history, but he has been a disappointment so far. Luis Cota, Mitch Maier, Mike Aviles and Shane Costa are pretty good prospects, helping the 2003 draft. The 2004 draft looks solid, picking up one of the best hitting prospects in the minors, Billy Butler. JP Howell has already made his major league debut. The 2005 draft looks pretty good early on, assuming Gordon signs. Bianchi is having a great debut and looks like a cost-effective steal. The trio of college catchers (Howell, Everett, Thibault) help fill a critical need in the organization. Overall, Baird has done a average job drafting, with noticeable improvement.

5. Hiring Organizational Personnel: Baird made the mistake of hiring Tony Pena and stuck with him too long. Buddy Bell looks alright so far. Bell has instilled discipline and the team looks better than Pena's squad. The Royals have had a lot of trouble finding a good pitching coach. The early returns on Guy Hansen are mixed. While he has seemed to really have helped the bullpen (particularly MacDougal), the rotation is still awful. Greinke's regression is especially disappointing. Ultimately, Baird is responsible for the carousel of pitching coaches.

6. Assessment of Team Needs: Baird has done a medicore job of assessing the team needs and focusing too much on one specific need. This year, it's been the power-hitting corner outfielder. Not only has he spent a year focusing on it, but it appears that he wouldn't accept other prospects in return for Affeldt except a top OF prospect (KC Star said the price for Affeldt was the PH corner OF). The Mariners got the Marlins' top right-handed prospect Yomany Bozardo for Ron Villone. The Royals starting rotation is a bigger need than the outfield. Baird also demanded a 3rd basemen and a catcher for Beltran instead of getting the best talent available. You can always go out and sign a 3rd basemen and a catcher. But, you can't get a couple of top prospects with All-Star potential everyday. The big trades should have focused on getting back top prospects who could eventually be the caliber of the player you traded.

Reasons to Keep Baird or Give Him More Time:

1. Baird has developed a core of young players that will be together for the next 4 or 5 years. Whether they are any good or not, only time will tell. But, the patience of Royals fans is running thin.
2. Firing Baird might alter the direction of the franchise. Hard to see that as a negative thing though.
3. The Royals had their only winning season since 1994 under Baird
4. He's a nice guy and a hard worker

The Royals have given Baird 5 years to improve this team and that hasn't happened. In fact, it's gotten worse. Last year, Baird developed a plan to make the team competitive. However, it's a bit late for that. The Royals don't have the pieces necessary to make the plan successful. Overall, Baird has done a less than satisfactory job in every aspect of his job. A below-average GM won't cut it for a small-market team. You need to have one of the best GMs and scouting departments to get the best, cheap talent available.

Major Change #2: Fix the Starting Pitching Problem

I have no idea why the Royals can't develop starters, but they have been woefully inept at this. The young starters never seem to be able to overcome the adjustment period and just get worse. Greinke seems like the easiest starting pitcher to develop. He has good makeup, good control, and good stuff.

To fix this problem, the Royals will need to completely overhaul everything associated with developing starters. The Royals need to take a long, hard look at how they are developing their starters. The Royals should also take a look at organizations like the A's and see if they can learn anything from them. This team isn't going anywhere if the Royals can't develop starting pitching.

I encourage you to let Dan Glass hear your opinion on whether or not Baird should remain the general manager of the team. The Royals seem very comfortable with Allard Baird. But, if Mr. Glass becomes aware of the fans displeasure with the GM, then perhaps this will hasten much needed changes in the organization. Here is the e-mail for Dan Glass and his fax number:

dan.glass@kcroyals.com

FAX Number: (816) 924-0347

-Note: Faxes are probably more likely to be read. E-Mails can be deleted easily.

More Mumblings and Grumblings

Not too much to say about these past few days. Trying to find something positive to say, but I'm coming up empty. The Royals got swept by the Devil Rays and have lost the first 2 games to the Red Sox. This road trip needs to end quickly. The Royals were on a nice run, playing close to .500 under Bell through 50 games. But, I figured those days would have to end eventually. Those days have ended quite abruptly.

The Royals lost 104 games last year and look like they'll do the same this year. There need to be some MAJOR changes around this organization. You can't lose 100 games 3 times in 4 seasons and look the other way. The Royals' aren't making enough progress. The young position players haven't shown much improvement. Gotay is still struggling defensively and offensively. In July, Gotay hit .169/.211/.197. That line makes Mark Teahan look like Hank Blalock. Teahan wasn't anything special either, posting a .233/.320/.384. Teahan still makes too many errors at 3rd base. He should develop into a good defender, but he'll need to develop power to keep his job. Hitting 5 HRs a year isn't going to cut it for a 3rd basemen, even on this team. Berroa continues to swing at bad pitches and continues to decline offensively. The greatest signs of progress are the young players arbitration clocks.

The other bothersome area is the starting rotation. It's just awful. Right now, Jose Lima is pitching the best. Zack Greinke has 13 losses already and an ERA of 6.14. I'd love to hear an explanation of why the Royals can't develop starting pitching. It's a huge problem. As much as I'd love to see the Royals sign a top starter this offseason, I'm not optimistic it will happen. First of all, that means the Royals have to be ready to pay $7-10 million a year for at least 2 years. Even if Mr. Glass is willing to write the check, what free agent starter will be willing to come to Kansas City? There might be a few who want to escape the limelight of larger markets. But, most would rather go to a larger market. So, the Royals will probably have to overpay any starter to come to Kansas City.

Life As a Royals' Fan

Life As a Royals' Fan

Your biggest trade of the season: Graffanino for two "C" prospects

Your biggest offseason signing: Jose Lima

Your team just got swept by the Devil Rays and was swept by the Rockies earlier in the year


I must say, today it really struck me for some reason. I've been in agreement with the Royals' management that the best way for the Royals to eventually become a contender is to draft well and develop young, cheap players. Essentially, the Royals should pattern themselves after the Twins and A's. This is what the Royals are trying to do.

Unfortunately, the Royals are well behind the other teams in the division. The Twins have been developing a strong core of young players over the past 5 years and it has helped them become regular division winners. The Twins farm system is still outstanding and could be what puts them over the top. The White Sox have become one of the best teams in baseball. They have a very good pitching staff and a fairly good offense. The White Sox payroll continues to increase and with their financial resources, their team should continue to contend. The Indians essentially did the same thing as the Twins. The Indians have a solid core of young position players that will make them competitive. They also have a solid bullpen. Even the Tigers have substantially improved. They spent a lot of money (not terribly effectively) and are a decent team. They have two very good young righties ready to enter the rotation. Bonderman, Zumaya, and Verlander could be a very good power rotation for the Tigers.

2004 should have been a wakeup call for the Royals. The Royals set a team record for losses. What do the Royals do in the offseason? Absolutely nothing worthwhile. They didn't add much talent to the team. The Royals flat out wasted about $9 million on Long, Lima, and Marrero. With that money and a little extra, the Royals could have signed Jermaine Dye, Paul Byrd and Joe Randa. Why sign these 3? Well, Dye is the power-hitting corner outfielder the Royals were after. With Dye, DeJesus, and Brown, the Royals have a solid outfield. It also leaves Costa in the minors to develop. Why sign Joe Randa? For one, he's a familiar face and a fan favorite. He gives the Royals an opportunity to develop Mark Teahan and let him make the adjustments they want him to make (pulling the ball in particular). After a half-season in the minors, trade Randa for some starting pitching help (Reds got Travis Chick and Justin Germano, two solid SP prospects). Finally, Paul Byrd, who Baird sought during the offseason, would have been an effective innings-eater. This gives the Royals 3 valuable trade commodities at the deadline. At the very least, this gives the Royals 3 veteran players who give the young players time to develop and some quality veteran leadership. Not to mention, they are 3 familiar faces and the Royals have a good idea of what to expect. The offense would have been much better with a lineup of DeJesus, Randa, Sweeney, Dye, Brown, Stairs, Berroa, Gotay, Buck. Oh well, can't do anything about that now.

Overall, I'm displeased with the Royals' progress toward making this team a contender. To build a contender, you have to have talent. Talent makes you ballclub better and can help you improve your ballclub through trades. The Royals needed to add talent badly, and they didn't.

To conclude my rant (sorry for all the pessimism), I just wanted to point out that the Royals lost their 500th game under Baird in just over 5 seasons. That's pretty awful. The Royals have lost 100 games in 2 of their last 3 seasons and appear to be on their way to another. I've been a Baird supporter up until recently. But, I'm starting to think it's time to find a new GM for the Royals. This team has hit the bottom and isn't showing many signs of heading upward.

As a side note: The Mariners traded Ron Villone, a 35-year-old lefty, for Yorman Bazardo, the Marlins #3 ranked prospect according to Baseball America. Bazardo is 21 years old and throws a sinker in the mid 90s and can hit upwards of 98 mph with his 4-seamer. He has a plus changeup and has a developing slider. Bazardo is not just another hard-throwing young pitcher destined for the bullpen. Bazardo has averaged less than 3 BBs/9 IP over each of the last three seasons and has posted good K/BB ratios.

Why do we care about a prospect the Mariners received? Well, the Marlins were very interested in Jeremy Affeldt. But, the Royals were reportedly asking for outfielder Jeremy Hermida, the Marlins' top prospect who is virtually untouchable. While Hermida would be nice, the Marlins had other options like Villone they could trade for. The Royals need starting pitching more than they do corner outfielders. So, a 21-year-old hard-throwing righty with good control seems like a perfect fit. And, if the Marlins are willing to trade Bazardo for a 35-year-old journeyman reliever with average stuff having a career year, I'm pretty sure they would have traded Bazardo for Jeremy Affeldt. Affeldt is just 26 years old and still has 2+ years left under their control. Affeldt makes half of Villone's salary and has better stuff and more upside. So, the Royals could have probably gotten Bazardo and a C/C+ prospect. But, I have a feeling Baird held out for his outfielder and lost out yet again. I wish he'd just find one so we wouldn't have to hear about this young power-hitting corner outfielder anymore.