How To Fix The Rotation
There isn't much we can do this year to fix the rotation. We're pretty much stuck with the battered rotation we have. Going into next year, the Royals basically have two guys who I would consider locks for the rotation: Runelvys Hernandez and Zack Greinke. Hernandez has been the most consistent pitcher on the team. Greinke's potential will keep him in the rotation, unless he doesn't improve at all. Denny Bautista, if healthy, will probably get a spot in the rotation for the same reason as Greinke. DJ Carrasco and JP Howell will also compete for spots. If Carrasco continues to pitch well as a starter, he'll probably get a spot too.
Ultimately, the Royals have two choices when filling out the rotation. The Royals can continue to develop starters in the big leagues and keep them in the rotation, even if they have one of the worst ERAs in baseball. Or, the Royals can put the 5 best starters in the rotation based on performance. Either way, I don't think a rotation of Hernandez, Greinke, Carrasco, Bautista, and Howell is going to perform well over the course of a season. At some point, the Royals will have to get out of the developmental mode and start demanding performance. So, I think the Royals need to look for two starters:
1. Sign free agent starters or trade for starters: Problem here is that good starters cost lots of $$$ over 2 or 3 years and we don't have any expendable talent to trade away for a starter. I think the Royals will have to sign one good starter (No. 2/3 quality), even if they have to overpay for it. The free agent market is pretty bad for starters, so the price will be high. Signing someone like Anderson or another veteran to compete for the No. 5 spot or pitch in long relief would be a good idea for depth. The Royals always seem to run out of starting pitching in the middle of the season, so depth is crucial.
2. Convert one or more of our relievers into a starter: The Royals have a surplus of "power arms" in the bullpen, many of whom are converted starters. Affeldt, Nunez, Burgos, and Sisco were starters last year, so the transition wouldn't be too difficult. The difficult part is choosing who to convert into a starter. Here's a look at the case for each of the 4 pitchers:
Jeremy Affeldt: Affeldt is the only one of the 4 pitchers who has experience starting. His blister problems are done and his groin problem seem to be due to overthrowing in the bullpen. As a starter, Affeldt had an ERA of 4.34 in 2003 and an ERA of 5.25 in 2004. Affeldt struggled in the middle innings as a starter in 2005, which seemed to explain the increase in ERA. Overall, he wasn't great as a starter, but he's only thrown 174 innings as a starter. For a hard-throwing lefty with a great curve, that's pretty early to give up on him as a starter. Here's the dilemma with Affeldt: the Royals have hurt his development by changing his roles frequently. But, would you rather take a risk with Affeldt 2 two years left, or one of the other 3 much younger pitchers with 5 years left? The other part of the argument is that if Affeldt became a good starter, the Royals would have him for just 2 years as opposed to 5 years with the other 3. Tough call. I doubt Affeldt is eager to change roles again.
Andrew Sisco: Sisco was a starter last year in high A ball. He had a 4.21 ERA in 126 IP and struck out 134 and walked 65. Sisco's conditioning was a problem as the year progressed and he lost some velocity (happening some this year as well). His conditioning could certainly be worked on during the offseason. His control hasn't been great, but he has 3 quality pitches. He could develop into a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.
Ambiorix Burgos: Burgos was also a starter for the Burlington Bees. Burgos had a 4.38 ERA in 133 IP and struck out 172 and walked 75. It'd be interesting to see how Burgos would do in the rotation. He has great stuff, but his control probably isn't good enough to be a starter. He profiles better as a closer than the two pitchers above.
Leo Nunez: Nunez was also a starter last year in low A ball. Nunez has good control, although he throws the ball down the center of the plate too often. As a starter last year, Nunez pitched 144 innings and had an ERA of 3.13, struck out 140 and walked 46. Nunez's durability could be an issue as a starter. He's only pitched 100+ innings in the minors once. But, it hasn't been an issue yet.
It's a tough choice. If I had to pick, I would probably go with a rotation of a FA starter, Hernandez, Greinke, Bautista, and Howell/Carrasco with Anderson in long relief (if he comes back healthy and will sign) and Sisco to AA or AAA to get some experience as a starter and grab a spot in May or June (also has service time benefits as well). It's a lot easier to convert a starter to a reliever than convert a reliever into a starter. If the experiment fails, I don't think the Royals will ruin a young pitcher's career. Affeldt has always pitched well in the bullpen. I think it's worth the risk to convert Sisco into a starter. The Royals need quality starting pitching badly.
Ultimately, the Royals have two choices when filling out the rotation. The Royals can continue to develop starters in the big leagues and keep them in the rotation, even if they have one of the worst ERAs in baseball. Or, the Royals can put the 5 best starters in the rotation based on performance. Either way, I don't think a rotation of Hernandez, Greinke, Carrasco, Bautista, and Howell is going to perform well over the course of a season. At some point, the Royals will have to get out of the developmental mode and start demanding performance. So, I think the Royals need to look for two starters:
1. Sign free agent starters or trade for starters: Problem here is that good starters cost lots of $$$ over 2 or 3 years and we don't have any expendable talent to trade away for a starter. I think the Royals will have to sign one good starter (No. 2/3 quality), even if they have to overpay for it. The free agent market is pretty bad for starters, so the price will be high. Signing someone like Anderson or another veteran to compete for the No. 5 spot or pitch in long relief would be a good idea for depth. The Royals always seem to run out of starting pitching in the middle of the season, so depth is crucial.
2. Convert one or more of our relievers into a starter: The Royals have a surplus of "power arms" in the bullpen, many of whom are converted starters. Affeldt, Nunez, Burgos, and Sisco were starters last year, so the transition wouldn't be too difficult. The difficult part is choosing who to convert into a starter. Here's a look at the case for each of the 4 pitchers:
Jeremy Affeldt: Affeldt is the only one of the 4 pitchers who has experience starting. His blister problems are done and his groin problem seem to be due to overthrowing in the bullpen. As a starter, Affeldt had an ERA of 4.34 in 2003 and an ERA of 5.25 in 2004. Affeldt struggled in the middle innings as a starter in 2005, which seemed to explain the increase in ERA. Overall, he wasn't great as a starter, but he's only thrown 174 innings as a starter. For a hard-throwing lefty with a great curve, that's pretty early to give up on him as a starter. Here's the dilemma with Affeldt: the Royals have hurt his development by changing his roles frequently. But, would you rather take a risk with Affeldt 2 two years left, or one of the other 3 much younger pitchers with 5 years left? The other part of the argument is that if Affeldt became a good starter, the Royals would have him for just 2 years as opposed to 5 years with the other 3. Tough call. I doubt Affeldt is eager to change roles again.
Andrew Sisco: Sisco was a starter last year in high A ball. He had a 4.21 ERA in 126 IP and struck out 134 and walked 65. Sisco's conditioning was a problem as the year progressed and he lost some velocity (happening some this year as well). His conditioning could certainly be worked on during the offseason. His control hasn't been great, but he has 3 quality pitches. He could develop into a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.
Ambiorix Burgos: Burgos was also a starter for the Burlington Bees. Burgos had a 4.38 ERA in 133 IP and struck out 172 and walked 75. It'd be interesting to see how Burgos would do in the rotation. He has great stuff, but his control probably isn't good enough to be a starter. He profiles better as a closer than the two pitchers above.
Leo Nunez: Nunez was also a starter last year in low A ball. Nunez has good control, although he throws the ball down the center of the plate too often. As a starter last year, Nunez pitched 144 innings and had an ERA of 3.13, struck out 140 and walked 46. Nunez's durability could be an issue as a starter. He's only pitched 100+ innings in the minors once. But, it hasn't been an issue yet.
It's a tough choice. If I had to pick, I would probably go with a rotation of a FA starter, Hernandez, Greinke, Bautista, and Howell/Carrasco with Anderson in long relief (if he comes back healthy and will sign) and Sisco to AA or AAA to get some experience as a starter and grab a spot in May or June (also has service time benefits as well). It's a lot easier to convert a starter to a reliever than convert a reliever into a starter. If the experiment fails, I don't think the Royals will ruin a young pitcher's career. Affeldt has always pitched well in the bullpen. I think it's worth the risk to convert Sisco into a starter. The Royals need quality starting pitching badly.
posted by SoonerRoyal at 9:12 PM
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