Tuesday, July 19, 2005

Organizational Needs: Starting Pitching

I'm going to break down the Royals' organizational needs. I'll include what the Royals need to do to improve the team through trades and offseason deals. I'll start with starting pitching and work through the bullpen, infielders and outfielders.

Right now, the 2006 starting rotation looks something like this without any additions:

1. Runelvys Hernandez (best overall season of any Royals' starter this year)
-staff ace by default; he's ideally a innings eating No. 3 starter when healthy, but not the potential ace the Royals' brass think he'll be
2. Zack Greinke
-best shot at being the staff ace, but has a lot to learn and could have some maturity issues
3. DJ Carrasco
-Carrasco has been our best starter through 12 starts; still has to prove that his endurance can hold up and he can survive with a poor K/BB rate
4. JP Howell
-Howell has struggled, but after some polish in the minors, he should be ready to go in 2006
5. Denny Bautista
-As long as Bautista gets healthy, he will be in the rotation
Other possibilities: Kyle Snyder, Andrew Sisco

That has the makings of being every bit as good as the rotation this year, which is a dreadful. The Royals need to acquire 1 or 2 solid starters to add to the rotation. It's easy to pencil in these 7 guys and think that we have all of the pieces for a rotation. But, if the Royals want to improve their team, they need to get a No. 2 starter and a solid, innings-eating No. 4/5 starter. That will add a lot of stability to the rotation and add insurance for injuries, which will occur. Snyder and Sisco can start at AAA. Sisco will need to develop as a starter if the Royals choose to go that route.

In-Season Trades: The Royals need to acquire as much starting pitching prospects as possible. The depth in the system is dangerously low for a team that has a starting rotation as dreadful as the Royals. The Royals' best pitching prospect is in low A ball (Luis Cota) and the Royals have a solid college pitching prospect in high A (Billy Buckner). But, outside of that, the Royals don't have a lot of good pitching prospects.

Offseason Deals: The Royals need to acquire one No. 2/3 starter. This will cost $$$$. But, it is a necessity. The Royals haven't been able to develop quality starting pitching. So, the Royals need a No. 2 starter who can be the ace until they develop one. The Royals should look for a solid veteran pitcher who is willing to sign a $6-8 million/year deal for two years with an option for a 3rd year. But, the likelihood of the Royals actually spending the money to bring a quality starter to Kansas City isn't very good. The Royals could also use a solid veteran No. 4/5 starter who can be a true "innings" eater, not the Lima or Anderson variety. But, I'd settle for just a staff ace.

Notable FA Starters: Kevin Millwood, Paul Byrd, Glendon Rusch, Matt Morris, Esteban Loaiza

This is the Royals' greatest need. If they don't fix the rotation, the Royals' future is bleak. The Royals may have a great bullpen over the next few years, but that is meaningless if the rotation isn't putting the bullpen in a position to close out games. The offense doesn't look like it could carry a team with bad starting pitching. Most of the Royals' current players are replacement-level players at best. The Royals have a few impact bats in the minors, but they may or may not pan out. The best plan for the Royals is to load up on starting pitching.

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