Thursday, July 07, 2005

Outfield Depth: Is it really a problem?

The Royals have pegged this as a major need in the organization and are looking to add a young power-hitting corner outfielder. It is rumored that the Royals are planning on trading MacDougal for Matt Murton, an outfield prospect in the Cubs' organization. I'll go in-depth about the trade if and when it occurs.

Outfielders already on the ML club:

1. David DeJesus (CF): DeJesus is a solid CF who gets the most out of his ability. DeJesus gets on-base at a pretty good rate and is 3rd on the team in RBIs as the leadoff hitter. He doesn't have much power or speed, but he's a fine option until a better CF prospect arrives.

2. Shane Costa (LF): Costa is a good contact hitter who should develop 20 HR power in time. Costa is a solid defender in LF. His ML line through 63 ABs: 286/348/397. Not bad at all.

3. Emil Brown (RF): Brown has been one of the Royals' most pleasant surprises. After having a horrid April, Brown has improved his OBP from .254 to .358. Brown has pretty good power and is probably a 15 HR, 30 double hitter if he plays everyday. Brown is as good a hitter as the free agency market will offer (Lawton, Cruz, Giles are notable OF FAs). So, he would seem like a good cheap option until the Royals are ready to break in Maier or Butler in RF.

4. Terrence Long (LF/RF): Trade bait

Outfield Prospects who are likely to reach the majors in 2006 or 2007

AA:

1. Mitch Maier: Maier is having a very good season. He is leading the minors with 39 doubles and has 10 HRs. Maier is also the best defensive outfielder in the minors and could become a CF or RF.

High A:

1. Billy Butler: Butler would profile as a young, power-hitting corner OF and an impact bat the Royals desperately want. The question with Butler is his defense. He has a very good arm and could probably play RF, but his range and fielding ability may force him to be a DH.

2. Chris Lubanski: Lubanski had a terrible start, but has improved. His plate discipline still has a long ways to go and he probably won't be a CF unless he improves his defense considerably. Lubanski has almost as many HRs as Butler and looks to be developing good power.

Other possibilities:
1. Alex Gordon: If Teahan develops into a solid 3rd basemen, Gordon could become a RF if it's still a major need. Of course, the Royals still have to sign Gordon, but he could arrive by 2007 in the OF.

Overall, a depth chart of the outfield looks like this:

LF:
1. Costa
2. Butler
3. Lubanski

CF:
1. DeJesus
2. Maier

RF:
1. Brown
2. Maier
3. Butler
4. (Gordon) -if signed and position change is made

This doesn't appear to be a significant weakness anymore. Costa and Maier have advanced and played well at the next level and profile as solid major-league outfielders. Butler, Lubanski, and Gordon could provide the Royals with some power at the corner outfield spots. Unless the Royals can find a prospect/player who is a significant upgrade over these players/prospects (without mortgaging the future), the Royals should focus more on other weaknesses in the organization (there are plenty). My greatest concern is starting pitching. The Royals only have two solid starting pitching prospects in the minors: Luis Cota (low A) and Billy Buckner (high A). This an area that needs to be addressed.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I enjoy your blog a log man - keep up the good work.

8:05 AM  
Blogger SoonerRoyal said...

I will, thanks for reading.

4:44 PM  

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