Sunday, July 03, 2005

Baird's Trade Bait: Reel in Another Huber or Bautista

Baird did a good job last season of getting two very good players (Justin Huber and Denny Bautista) for virtually nothing (Jose Bautista and Jason Grimsley). In fact, he got more talent back in that those two trades than he did in the Carlos Beltran deal. Baird has some players who have some value in the trade market (and few surprisingly so) who don't figure into the future of this team. Here's a look at them, in order of most likely to be shipped out:

1. Tony Graffanino-Graffanino has been mentioned in several trade rumors. Teams are looking for a good utility guy to add depth. Graffanino is a veteran who gets on base and is a solid backup player. Graffanino could bring a B-/C+ prospect and I wouldn't underestimate his value to a team in contention.

2. Terrence Long-Assuming the Royals will pick up most of Long's salary, he'll likely be shipped out. Long is a serviceable 4th outfielder who does pretty well against righties. Long is also a pretty good defender in LF. I don't expect to get much in return for Long, maybe a C prospect.

3. Jose Lima-Lima has just plain stunk for the first half of the season. But, his best outings have come against NL teams. An NL team would probably give Lima a chance, especially considering his playoff performance last year. My guess is that the Royals swap Lima for another struggling starter.

4. Matt Stairs-Stairs is having a good season. Stairs is a solid hitter who takes a lot of walks. He isn't really a middle of the lineup hitter for a playoff team though. But, he would add depth and experience to a contending team. The Royals only trade Stairs if they can get a good return for him. Stairs will likely be needed to fill in for Sweeney if (when) he gets hurt.

5. Jeremy Affeldt-Once Affeldt gets healthy, he should attract some attention in the trade market. Affeldt has pitched a grand total of 11 2/3 innings so far this season. So, his value has somewhat diminished until he proves that he can stay healthy and be a consistently good setup man. But, a lefty with a 94-96 mph fastball and great curve will attract teams nonetheless. Affeldt could help the Royals get the corner outfielder they are after.

6. Mike MacDougal-MacDougal has settled into the closer's role and had success. Like Affeldt, MacDougal has great stuff and wouldn't add much to a team's payroll. Because he's stayed healthy and had success as a closer, MacDougal's trade value is higher than Affeldt's. But, removing MacDougal would destabilize the bullpen and start the closer carousel all over again. However, it's not like there are going to be many save situations this year.

7. Mike Sweeney-Sweeney is probably the least likely to be traded out of this group, but would bring the greatest return. The Royals have said they are looking to add a bat to Sweeney in the middle of the lineup. A playoff team desperate for a middle of the lineup hitter and room for significant payroll additions would pursue Sweeney and could bring a couple top prospects. Sweeney's contract and frequent DL stints lower his value. But, he's a valuable commidity, nonetheless.

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