Organization Analysis: Starting Rotation

I figured with the draft coming up, it'd be a good idea to do an analysis of the Royals' organization. It's also a good time as the Royals may make some trades and other moves to fix weaknesses in the organization. I guess the best way to do this is to break it down into starting rotation, bullpen, infielders, and outfielders. I'll start with pitching and finish the others in a subsequent thread.

Starting Pitching: The Royals starting pitching remains a weakness, with the staff ERA that's 2nd worst in the majors and has pitched the fewest number of innings. Building a good starting rotation is the first step in turning a team around.

#1 starter

Zack Greinke should be the leader for the Royals over the next 5 years and hopefully beyond. Greinke has cut back on his HR totals, but his control hasn't been quite as good as last year. It may take him a while to figure out how to use all of his pitches effectively, but he should emerge as a true ace by 2006.

Prospects: None really profile as a No. 1 starter

#2 starter

Denny Bautista has the upside of a No. 2 starter. Bautista has 3 potential plus pitches. However, his inconsistent command of his secondary pitches may keep him from developing into a solid starter. Bautista has tremendous upside as a starter, but he also is probably the most likely to fail as a starter.
If converted to a starter, Andrew Sisco has the upside of being a No. 2 starter, perhaps a No. 1 starter. Sisco has a great fastball and improving off-speed stuff. His command of his fastball has improved considerably as well. His strikeout rate is very high, but so are his walk totals. Sisco is currently in the bullpen, but could be moved to the rotation.

Prospects: Luis Cota (Burlington), Eric Cordier (Ext. Spring)

Cota has a very good fastball with good movement and a good slider. He has two-plus pitches and is doing very well at Burlington. Mr. Cordier's son is difficult to project, but he has the potential for three plus pitches.

#3 starter

Royals don't really have anyone on the current staff who is a true No. 3 starter.

Prospects: JP Howell (Wichita)

Howell has had a very good season at High Desert and Wichita. He should be ready by next season and should develop quickly.


#4 starter

Runelvys Hernandez is probably closest to a true No. 4 starter. Hernandez has struggled this year, possibly because of lost velocity and command. As that returns, he should become a league-average pitcher.

Prospects: Billy Buckner (High Desert), Matt Campbell (Burlington)

Billy Buckner projects as a #3/4 starter. He has a low 90s fastball and an excellent curveball. His changeup has potential to be a good pitch. Matt Campbell had better velocity last year, but it's dropped into the mid to upper 80s this season. He has a very good curveball. His control has been poor this season. No. 4 starter might be pushing it.

#5 starter

Here's where the list gets long. The Royals' best candidates for the back of the rotation are, in no particular order: Kyle Snyder, Mike Wood, Jimmy Gobble, DJ Carrasco, and many others. Baird will probably sign a couple of them this offseason. The #5 starter spot could end up with one of the Royals' failed prospects/borderline prospects. Kyle Middleton, Danny Tamayo, Brian Bass, and Mike Stodolka come to mind. The Royals have a surplus here, no need to acquire more. The thing I fear most is that the Royals will try and fill out the rotation with these guys.

Prospects: Kyle Middleton (Wichita), Dusty Hughes (High Desert), Devon Lowery (Ext Spring), Jason Kaanoi (High Desert)

Overall Grade:
1. Current Starters' Performance: D
2. Current Starters' Potential: B-
3. Current Prospects Depth: C-
4. Current Prospects Potential: C+

What to do this season: Royals need to add some more starting pitching prospects into the system. Last year's draft added 5 solid prospects who project from a #2 to #4 starter. The best way to do this is probably by trading veterans to acquire pitching prospects. The Royals need to pick up some pitchers with high upside since they don't have many picks in the early rounds. The back of the rotation should fill in fine, the Royals lack prospects who project as #1-#3 starters.

What to do this offseason: Again, try and trade any veterans not in the future for starting pitching prospects. The Royals also need to acquire a No. 2 and No. 4 starter, probably through free agency. If you aren't looking for a #1 starter, there are quite a few experienced starters available. With $18 million coming off the payroll and the Royals already being $10-15 million under the Glass salary cap, the Royals can afford to sign two solid veteran starters.