Royals' Future Payrolls

The Royals will get a mulligan on some bad free agent signings and trades after this season. The Royals lose the contracts of Jose Lima, Brian Anderson, Terrence Long, Eli Marrero, Scott Sullivan (~$15 million) as well as much better contracts of Matt Stairs and Tony Graffanino ($2.3 million). The Royals current payroll is $36.8 million. So, the Royals are in good shape payroll-wise next year. David Glass has said that next year's payroll will be close to $50 million and I have no reason to believe it won't. But, that means the Royals have about $25-30 million to spend to get up to that payroll level. How they plan on doing that, I have no idea. Except for Sweeney, the Royals haven't given any free agent more than a 2-year contract, and Sweeney was a known commidity to the organization. If the Royals are going to spend $25-30 million, they'll have to spend it on good players who may ask for longer than a 2-year contract. While the payroll is going to be low next year, more players will hit arbitration in 2007 and 2008 which will drive the payroll up. So, $30 million in new contracts may be affordable now, but not necessarily in a couple of years.

Here are the player's that are under contract for next year (salary/approx. salary in thousands of dollars):
Mike Sweeney (11000), Angel Berroa (2000), Jeremy Affeldt (arbitration), Runelvys Hernandez (arbitration), Emil Brown (arbitration, not sure about service time), Mike MacDougal (375), Zack Greinke (350), David DeJesus (350), Mike Wood (325), John Buck (325), Denny Bautista (325), Mark Teahan (325), Ruben Gotay (325), Andrew Sisco (325), JP Howell (325), Ambiorix Burgos (325), Leo Nunez (325), Kyle Snyder (325), DJ Carrasco (350), Justin Huber (325)

2006 Roster filled entirely from within

Catchers (2):
C John Buck (325)
C Tupman/Phillips (325)

Infielders (7):
1B Mike Sweeney (11000)
1B Justin Huber (325)
2B Ruben Gotay (325)
SS Angel Berroa (2000)
3B Mark Teahan (325)
Util Mike Aviles (325)
Util Murphy (325)
FA possibilities: Tony Graffanino

Outfielders (4):
LF Shane Costa (325)
CF David DeJesus (325)
RF Emil Brown/Mitch Maier (arbitration guess: $2 million)
OF Mitch Maier (325)
FA: Matt Lawton, Jose Cruz, Brian Giles

Starting Pitchers (5):
SP Zack Greinke (350)
SP Runelvys Hernandez (arbitration guess: $1.5 million)
SP Andrew Sisco (325)
SP Denny Bautista (325)
SP JP Howell/DJ Carrasco/Kyle Snyder (325)
FA: Kevin Millwood, AJ Burnett, Chris Carpenter, Estaben Loaiza

Relievers (6):
CL Mike MacDougal (375)
RP Ambiorix Burgos (325)
RP Mike Wood (325)
RP Jeremy Affeldt (arbitration guess: $1.5 million)
RP Andrew Sisco (325)
RP Leo Nunez (325)
-other possibilities: Jimmy Gobble, Jonah Bayliss, Kyle Snyder

Total Cost without arbitration: $19.250 million
Total Cost with arbitration guesses: $24.250 million

With a base payroll of $25 million, the Royals are halfway to $50 million. How do you spend the other $25 million? I'll save that for another post. I included notable FAs who the Royals could pursue.

Now on to 2007:

In 2007, the roster pretty much stays the same. The Royals major financial commitments are Mike Sweeney ($11 million) and Angel Berroa ($3.25 million). The Royals have a lot more players going into arbitration in 2007. Although, Gobble, Snyder, Carrasco, and Brown may not be long-term guys. Several of last year's rookies could be Super 2's. Super twos are players who rank in the top 17% in service time among players with between 2 and 3 years of service. From what I've read, the cutoff is usually between 130 and 140 days and the minimum cutoff has been 128 days. So, I would assume DeJesus is a Super Two, Greinke 50-60% chance, Wood 60-70% chance. Royals might get hammered in 2007. It might have been worth having Chris George get pounded for two weeks while Greinke stayed at AAA so we could avoid Super 2 status. Here are the rest of the players eligible for arbitration in 2006-2007 offseason:

Third-year: Jeremy Affeldt
Second-year: Emil Brown, Runelvys Hernandez
First-year: Mike MacDougal, Jimmy Gobble, Kyle Snyder, DJ Carrasco
Super Twos? Zack Greinke (2 yrs, 135 days), David DeJesus (2 yrs, 146 days), Mike Wood (2 yrs, 140 days), John Buck (2 yrs, 101 days)

FAs after 2007: Mike Sweeney, Jeremy Affeldt

2008:

Major Financial Commitments: Angel Berroa ($4.75), long-term contract for Greinke (hoping)

The Royals unload Sweeney's contract in 2007. Berroa's contract starts to be a bit of a burden, but not too bad. By 2008, I think the Royals payroll could be near $60 million if the Royals are competing. Glass has shown that he is willing to spend money if the Royals are contending and put up a $53 million payroll last year. But, a significant portion of that payroll will be going to the young players.

2007-2008 offseason Arbitration eligible:
First-Year: Zack Greinke, David DeJesus, Mike Wood, John Buck, Mark Teahan, Denny Bautista, Ruben Gotay, Andrew Sisco
Second-Year: Mike MacDougal, Jimmy Gobble, Kyle Snyder, DJ Carrasco
Third-Year: Runelvys Hernandez

FAs after 2008: Runelvys Hernandez, Angel Berroa (option for 2009)

Beyond 2008:
FAs after 2009: Mike MacDougal, Jimmy Gobble, Kyle Snyder, DJ Carrasco, Angel Berroa (if option is picked up)
FAs after 2010: Zack Greinke, David DeJesus, Mike Wood, John Buck, Mark Teahan, Denny Bautista, Ruben Gotay, Andrew Sisco

Overall, the Royals have a lot of young players under their control and don't really lose the core of the youth until after 2010. That will give the Royals a chance to be competitive from 2007-2010. In 2006, the Royals are in great shape financially. Their base payroll will be near $25 million, so they'll have up to $25 million in free agency. But, in 2007 and particularly 2008, the Royals will have a lot of players in their arbitration years, so the financial leeway will be much less. So, the Royals may be somewhat limited in the length of contracts they can offer. The best method would be to sign good FAs for two-year deals worth $10-14 million with an club option in 2008. That would help them add some talent to help make this team competitive over the next couple of years and keep the player in 2008 if the team is competitive.