Midseason Review: Farm System
I postponed the individual player review until tomorrow. Instead, here's a review of the performance of the farm team and of the Royals' top prospects.
Omaha (41-50) 13th place out of 16 teams
Wichita (9-8 second half) 1st place out of 4 teams
High Desert (10-8 second half) 1st place out of 4 teams
Burlington (9-10 second half) tied 4th place out of 8 teams
Here are the top 20 prospects in the Royals' organization. In order to make the list, the player must be in the minors at this time.
Top 20 prospects:
1. Billy Butler 19/LF: Butler is the youngest player in the California League and is among the league leaders in batting average, OBP, HRs, RBIs and pretty much any offensive stat that doesn't require good speed on the basepaths. Butler is the Royals' best prospect since Zack Greinke. Butler's power should eventually rate an 80 on the scouting scale (very close right now) and his hitting ability won't be far behind. Butler projects to become a .300+ hitter with enough power to break Balboni's home run record. Butler has significantly decreased the number of errors he's made since moving to LF and his arm is good enough to play in RF. Whether or not his defensive abilities and range are good enough remains to be foreseen. As a LF or DH, Butler bat is his greatest asset and should make him a star. Butler will be in the top 10 of every prospect list next year.
High Desert (High A) 281 ABs .359/.436/.673 22 HRs 71 RBIs
2. Justin Huber 23/1B: Huber hasn't shown any signs of struggling after ending last season with a season-ending injury. Huber is having a solid season and has torn up AA pitching just like last year. Huber should develop into a .300+ hitter with 20-25 HR power. Huber has great on-base skills as well. Huber's defense still needs some work, but his bat is ready for Kansas City.
Wichita (AA) 277 ABs .339/.435/.539 10 HRs 55 RBIs
3. Luis Cota 19/RHP: Cota one of the youngest players in the Midwest League and he's having a very good season. Cota has a mid-90s fastball with good movement and a slider that should become a plus pitch. He's also developing a changeup. Cota's strikeout numbers are very impressive, averaging just under 1 strikeout per inning. Cota struggled throughout June, with his ERA increasing from under 2 to approaching 4. But, Cota pitched 6 shutout innings on Sunday and may be getting back on track. Cota could eventually be a No. 1 or 2 starter in the majors.
Burlington (Low A) 3-4 3.65 ERA 93 2/3 IP 42 BBs 86 SOs
4. Mitch Maier 23/CF: Maier is having a productive season and earned a promotion to AA. Maier has hit a ton of doubles, with 39 already. Maier's tools rate average or above-average in just about every area, possessing good ability as a hitter, baserunner, and fielding. Main concern with Maier is his plate discipline, as he has drawn just 18 walks in 318 ABs. If that improves, Maier could be in the big leagues as early as 2006.
High Desert (High A) 211 ABs .336/.370/.583 8 HRs 32 RBIs
Wichita (AA) 131 ABs .260/.299/.449 3 HRs 21 RBIs
5. Chris Lubanski 20/OF: Lubanski got off to a tough start, but has rebounded nicely. Lubanski has hit 20 HRs already and stolen 10 bases in 10 attempts. Lubanski has above-average power and speed, which the Royals could certainly use. Lubanski projects more as a LF because he doesn't get very good reads in CF and his arm is below-average. Lubanski still has a lot of improvements to make, especially with making consistent contact. He's already struck out 96 times in 336 ABs and walked just 21.
High Desert (high A) 336 ABs .274/.318/.530 20 HRs 69 RBIs 10 SBs
6. Donnie Murphy 22/2B: Murphy and Gotay are pretty similar players and the consensus is that Murphy is a better fielder than Gotay. Murphy is showing a bit more power this year, with 7 HRs in 193 ABs. His offensive numbers are very similar to Gotay's at each level of the minors. Murphy has been playing more shortstop as well this year. So, if Berroa's struggles continue, a move to short could happen.
Wichita (AA) 193 ABs .295/.338/.461 7 HRs 28 RBIs
7. Mike Aviles 24/IF: Aviles projects as a very good utility infielder. Aviles has shown good gap power, hitting 40 doubles last year and 24 doubles this year. He's having his best season as a pro so far at Wichita this year. Aviles needs to reduce the number of errors he makes. He has a good arm, but doesn't have great range.
Wichita (AA) 326 ABs .291/.332/.460 24 2Bs 9 HRs 56 RBIs
8. Billy Buckner 21/RHP: Buckner has moved quickly through the Royals' system, although not as fast as Howell. Buckner earned a quick promotion to High Desert after making 11 starts with an ERA of 3.88. Buckner has pitched pretty well at High Desert considering the ballpark factor and advanced hitting compared to the Midwest League. His K/BB numbers are solid, just over 3. Buckner has good command of a fastball that sits in around 89-91 mph. Buckner also has a very good curve and a changeup that is being developed. Buckner could eventully be a No. 4 starter.
Burlington (Low A) 3-7 3.88 ERA 60 1/3 IP 17 BBs 60 SOs
High Desert (High A) 3-3 4.83 ERA 41 IP 13 BBs 38 SOs
9. Brian McFall 21/RF: McFall is having a decent season for Burlington, especially after struggling during the first two months. McFall has a great arm, above-average speed, above-average raw power, and is a very good fielder. McFall has moved slower than the Royals would have liked, but his potential keeps him high on this list.
Burlington (Low A) 235 ABs .243/.325/.391 12 2Bs 7 HRs 35 RBIs 9 SBs
10. Jeffrey Bianchi 18/SS: Bianchi is off to a great start in the Arizona Rookie League. He has 30 hits in his first 60 ABs, 12 of them for extra bases. Bianchi has very good speed. It looks like the Royals got a steal with their second-round pick. Bianchi has made Baseball America's Hot Prospect Sheet twice already, and they were very impressed with him:
"A second-round pick out of a Pennsylvania high school, one scout said that right now, Bianchi is every bit the hitter that No. 1 overall pick Justin Upton is. That scout looks prophetic right now"
Royals (AZL) 60 ABs .500/.558/.883 4 HRs 22 RBIs
11. Adam Donachie 21/C: Donachie is having his best season as a pro. Donachie is a good season at High Desert. Donachie is a very good defensive catcher and has a plus-arm and will have success throwing out runners. Donachie is good enough defensively to make it to the majors, even if he doesn't become a great hitter. The offensive part of his game is still very unpolished and is an unknown. The Royals will get a better idea of what his abilities are at Wichita.
High Desert (High A) 205 ABs .283/.344/.483 8 HRs 29 RBIs
12. Jonah Bayliss 25/RHP: Bayliss pitched well in his debut in Kansas City. He's having a good season at Wichita, with a 2.50 ERA and 7 saves. Bayliss is averaging over 1K per inning. Bayliss has a low 90s fastball that he throws from a three-quarters arm slot. He also has a decent curve, but needs to improve his command of it.
Wichita (AA) 1-2 2.50 ERA 50 1/3 IP 22 BBs 53 SOs
13. Matt Campbell 22/LHP: Campbell has fought injury problems since arriving in the organization. Campbell's stuff is as good as Howell's. Campbell has a fastball that sits around 90 mph and has good tailing action. He also has a plus curve. Campbell's problems this year have been his control, as he's walked 37 batters in 63 2/3 innings.
Burlington (Low A) 1-5 4.66 ERA 63 2/3 IP 37 BBs 48 SOs
14. Kila Kaaihue 21/1B: Kaaihue is having a good season at High Desert. His OBP is much improved from last year and he's hitting for average as well. Kaaihue still lacks the power needed to be a full-time first basemen in the majors and projects more as a part-time player at this point.
High Desert (High A) .317/.428/.492 12 HRs 47 RBIs
15. Brian Bass 23/RHP: Bass struggled for the first half of the season, but has put together a string of quality starts over the past month. Bass has a low 90s fastball that gets a lot of groundballs and a quality curveball. Bass could compete for the No. 5 spot in the rotation next year or even replace a starter this year if injuries continue to decimate the Royals' rotation.
Wichita (AA) 8-4 5.35 ERA 106 IP 39 BBs 63 SOs
16. Andres Blanco 21/SS: Blanco has battled injury after injury this year. He still isn't showing much ability offensively, although he hit his first HR as a professional. His defensive abilities are outstanding and he's a gold-glove waiting to happen. But, he'll need to learn how to at least get on-base at a reasonable rate.
Omaha (AAA) 51 ABs .196/.268/.314 1 HR 2 RBIs
17. Chad Blackwell 22/RP: Blackwell is having a good season at Burlington. He's struck out 48 batters in 40 1/3 innings. Blackwell doesn't have overwhelming stuff, but has good command of his fastball and slider. Blackwell changes speeds well and could become a setup man in the majors.
Burlington (low A) 7-1 2.23 ERA 40 1/3 IP 17 BBs 48 SOs
18. Mario Lisson 21/3B: Lisson is a potential 5-tool player. He's stolen 23 bases in 27 attempts and has 25 extra base hits in 260 ABs. Lisson also walks a lot, which has led to a good OBP of .386.
Burlington (low A) 260 ABs.250/.386/.408 6 HRs 36 RBIs 23 SBs
19. Miguel Vega 19/1B: Vega has good raw power. He's been limited this year because of injuries and only has 114 ABs. He had 10 extra bases hits during that span. Vega also has the skills to be a good defender at first base.
Burlington (low A) .246/.287/.386 2 HRs 10 RBIs
20. Chris McConnell 19/SS: McConnell is off to a very good start at Idaho Falls. McConnell has very good range as a shortstop. He's shown the ability to hit for a high average, hitting above .330 last year and this year as well.
Idaho Falls (Rookie Pioneer League) 80 ABs .375/.404/.550 2 HRs 14 RBIs
Other non-prospects/fringe prospects to watch:
1. Matt Ford: Acquired from the Brewers, the lefty has a 0.93 ERA in 9 2/3 IP with the Royals. Ford is a lefty who had a lot of success in the minors and decent success in the big leagues.
2. Dennis Tankersley: Tankersley has great stuff and a lot of movement on his fastball. He's struck out 65 batters in 74 IP at Omaha. He has a 4.84 ERA, but has pitched much better over the past month. He could be a candidate for a spot start if the Royals need another starter.
3. Paul Phillips: Phillips may be the Royals' backup catcher next year. Phillips has 17 doubles and 4 HRs in 267 ABs.
4. Colt Griffin: Yes, Colt Griffin. The only reason he makes this list is because he has a 3.72 ERA and a terrible K/BB ratio. His fastball-slider combination could be a lethal one if he ever develops command of it. More likely, he'll be Wichita's version of MacDougal.
Omaha (41-50) 13th place out of 16 teams
Wichita (9-8 second half) 1st place out of 4 teams
High Desert (10-8 second half) 1st place out of 4 teams
Burlington (9-10 second half) tied 4th place out of 8 teams
Here are the top 20 prospects in the Royals' organization. In order to make the list, the player must be in the minors at this time.
Top 20 prospects:
1. Billy Butler 19/LF: Butler is the youngest player in the California League and is among the league leaders in batting average, OBP, HRs, RBIs and pretty much any offensive stat that doesn't require good speed on the basepaths. Butler is the Royals' best prospect since Zack Greinke. Butler's power should eventually rate an 80 on the scouting scale (very close right now) and his hitting ability won't be far behind. Butler projects to become a .300+ hitter with enough power to break Balboni's home run record. Butler has significantly decreased the number of errors he's made since moving to LF and his arm is good enough to play in RF. Whether or not his defensive abilities and range are good enough remains to be foreseen. As a LF or DH, Butler bat is his greatest asset and should make him a star. Butler will be in the top 10 of every prospect list next year.
High Desert (High A) 281 ABs .359/.436/.673 22 HRs 71 RBIs
2. Justin Huber 23/1B: Huber hasn't shown any signs of struggling after ending last season with a season-ending injury. Huber is having a solid season and has torn up AA pitching just like last year. Huber should develop into a .300+ hitter with 20-25 HR power. Huber has great on-base skills as well. Huber's defense still needs some work, but his bat is ready for Kansas City.
Wichita (AA) 277 ABs .339/.435/.539 10 HRs 55 RBIs
3. Luis Cota 19/RHP: Cota one of the youngest players in the Midwest League and he's having a very good season. Cota has a mid-90s fastball with good movement and a slider that should become a plus pitch. He's also developing a changeup. Cota's strikeout numbers are very impressive, averaging just under 1 strikeout per inning. Cota struggled throughout June, with his ERA increasing from under 2 to approaching 4. But, Cota pitched 6 shutout innings on Sunday and may be getting back on track. Cota could eventually be a No. 1 or 2 starter in the majors.
Burlington (Low A) 3-4 3.65 ERA 93 2/3 IP 42 BBs 86 SOs
4. Mitch Maier 23/CF: Maier is having a productive season and earned a promotion to AA. Maier has hit a ton of doubles, with 39 already. Maier's tools rate average or above-average in just about every area, possessing good ability as a hitter, baserunner, and fielding. Main concern with Maier is his plate discipline, as he has drawn just 18 walks in 318 ABs. If that improves, Maier could be in the big leagues as early as 2006.
High Desert (High A) 211 ABs .336/.370/.583 8 HRs 32 RBIs
Wichita (AA) 131 ABs .260/.299/.449 3 HRs 21 RBIs
5. Chris Lubanski 20/OF: Lubanski got off to a tough start, but has rebounded nicely. Lubanski has hit 20 HRs already and stolen 10 bases in 10 attempts. Lubanski has above-average power and speed, which the Royals could certainly use. Lubanski projects more as a LF because he doesn't get very good reads in CF and his arm is below-average. Lubanski still has a lot of improvements to make, especially with making consistent contact. He's already struck out 96 times in 336 ABs and walked just 21.
High Desert (high A) 336 ABs .274/.318/.530 20 HRs 69 RBIs 10 SBs
6. Donnie Murphy 22/2B: Murphy and Gotay are pretty similar players and the consensus is that Murphy is a better fielder than Gotay. Murphy is showing a bit more power this year, with 7 HRs in 193 ABs. His offensive numbers are very similar to Gotay's at each level of the minors. Murphy has been playing more shortstop as well this year. So, if Berroa's struggles continue, a move to short could happen.
Wichita (AA) 193 ABs .295/.338/.461 7 HRs 28 RBIs
7. Mike Aviles 24/IF: Aviles projects as a very good utility infielder. Aviles has shown good gap power, hitting 40 doubles last year and 24 doubles this year. He's having his best season as a pro so far at Wichita this year. Aviles needs to reduce the number of errors he makes. He has a good arm, but doesn't have great range.
Wichita (AA) 326 ABs .291/.332/.460 24 2Bs 9 HRs 56 RBIs
8. Billy Buckner 21/RHP: Buckner has moved quickly through the Royals' system, although not as fast as Howell. Buckner earned a quick promotion to High Desert after making 11 starts with an ERA of 3.88. Buckner has pitched pretty well at High Desert considering the ballpark factor and advanced hitting compared to the Midwest League. His K/BB numbers are solid, just over 3. Buckner has good command of a fastball that sits in around 89-91 mph. Buckner also has a very good curve and a changeup that is being developed. Buckner could eventully be a No. 4 starter.
Burlington (Low A) 3-7 3.88 ERA 60 1/3 IP 17 BBs 60 SOs
High Desert (High A) 3-3 4.83 ERA 41 IP 13 BBs 38 SOs
9. Brian McFall 21/RF: McFall is having a decent season for Burlington, especially after struggling during the first two months. McFall has a great arm, above-average speed, above-average raw power, and is a very good fielder. McFall has moved slower than the Royals would have liked, but his potential keeps him high on this list.
Burlington (Low A) 235 ABs .243/.325/.391 12 2Bs 7 HRs 35 RBIs 9 SBs
10. Jeffrey Bianchi 18/SS: Bianchi is off to a great start in the Arizona Rookie League. He has 30 hits in his first 60 ABs, 12 of them for extra bases. Bianchi has very good speed. It looks like the Royals got a steal with their second-round pick. Bianchi has made Baseball America's Hot Prospect Sheet twice already, and they were very impressed with him:
"A second-round pick out of a Pennsylvania high school, one scout said that right now, Bianchi is every bit the hitter that No. 1 overall pick Justin Upton is. That scout looks prophetic right now"
Royals (AZL) 60 ABs .500/.558/.883 4 HRs 22 RBIs
11. Adam Donachie 21/C: Donachie is having his best season as a pro. Donachie is a good season at High Desert. Donachie is a very good defensive catcher and has a plus-arm and will have success throwing out runners. Donachie is good enough defensively to make it to the majors, even if he doesn't become a great hitter. The offensive part of his game is still very unpolished and is an unknown. The Royals will get a better idea of what his abilities are at Wichita.
High Desert (High A) 205 ABs .283/.344/.483 8 HRs 29 RBIs
12. Jonah Bayliss 25/RHP: Bayliss pitched well in his debut in Kansas City. He's having a good season at Wichita, with a 2.50 ERA and 7 saves. Bayliss is averaging over 1K per inning. Bayliss has a low 90s fastball that he throws from a three-quarters arm slot. He also has a decent curve, but needs to improve his command of it.
Wichita (AA) 1-2 2.50 ERA 50 1/3 IP 22 BBs 53 SOs
13. Matt Campbell 22/LHP: Campbell has fought injury problems since arriving in the organization. Campbell's stuff is as good as Howell's. Campbell has a fastball that sits around 90 mph and has good tailing action. He also has a plus curve. Campbell's problems this year have been his control, as he's walked 37 batters in 63 2/3 innings.
Burlington (Low A) 1-5 4.66 ERA 63 2/3 IP 37 BBs 48 SOs
14. Kila Kaaihue 21/1B: Kaaihue is having a good season at High Desert. His OBP is much improved from last year and he's hitting for average as well. Kaaihue still lacks the power needed to be a full-time first basemen in the majors and projects more as a part-time player at this point.
High Desert (High A) .317/.428/.492 12 HRs 47 RBIs
15. Brian Bass 23/RHP: Bass struggled for the first half of the season, but has put together a string of quality starts over the past month. Bass has a low 90s fastball that gets a lot of groundballs and a quality curveball. Bass could compete for the No. 5 spot in the rotation next year or even replace a starter this year if injuries continue to decimate the Royals' rotation.
Wichita (AA) 8-4 5.35 ERA 106 IP 39 BBs 63 SOs
16. Andres Blanco 21/SS: Blanco has battled injury after injury this year. He still isn't showing much ability offensively, although he hit his first HR as a professional. His defensive abilities are outstanding and he's a gold-glove waiting to happen. But, he'll need to learn how to at least get on-base at a reasonable rate.
Omaha (AAA) 51 ABs .196/.268/.314 1 HR 2 RBIs
17. Chad Blackwell 22/RP: Blackwell is having a good season at Burlington. He's struck out 48 batters in 40 1/3 innings. Blackwell doesn't have overwhelming stuff, but has good command of his fastball and slider. Blackwell changes speeds well and could become a setup man in the majors.
Burlington (low A) 7-1 2.23 ERA 40 1/3 IP 17 BBs 48 SOs
18. Mario Lisson 21/3B: Lisson is a potential 5-tool player. He's stolen 23 bases in 27 attempts and has 25 extra base hits in 260 ABs. Lisson also walks a lot, which has led to a good OBP of .386.
Burlington (low A) 260 ABs.250/.386/.408 6 HRs 36 RBIs 23 SBs
19. Miguel Vega 19/1B: Vega has good raw power. He's been limited this year because of injuries and only has 114 ABs. He had 10 extra bases hits during that span. Vega also has the skills to be a good defender at first base.
Burlington (low A) .246/.287/.386 2 HRs 10 RBIs
20. Chris McConnell 19/SS: McConnell is off to a very good start at Idaho Falls. McConnell has very good range as a shortstop. He's shown the ability to hit for a high average, hitting above .330 last year and this year as well.
Idaho Falls (Rookie Pioneer League) 80 ABs .375/.404/.550 2 HRs 14 RBIs
Other non-prospects/fringe prospects to watch:
1. Matt Ford: Acquired from the Brewers, the lefty has a 0.93 ERA in 9 2/3 IP with the Royals. Ford is a lefty who had a lot of success in the minors and decent success in the big leagues.
2. Dennis Tankersley: Tankersley has great stuff and a lot of movement on his fastball. He's struck out 65 batters in 74 IP at Omaha. He has a 4.84 ERA, but has pitched much better over the past month. He could be a candidate for a spot start if the Royals need another starter.
3. Paul Phillips: Phillips may be the Royals' backup catcher next year. Phillips has 17 doubles and 4 HRs in 267 ABs.
4. Colt Griffin: Yes, Colt Griffin. The only reason he makes this list is because he has a 3.72 ERA and a terrible K/BB ratio. His fastball-slider combination could be a lethal one if he ever develops command of it. More likely, he'll be Wichita's version of MacDougal.
posted by SoonerRoyal at 9:56 PM
2 Comments:
good rundown, ou. the top 20 looks pretty good--especially once we add alex gordon onto it.
from another site: eric cordier should be pitching in the AZ league in a week or so
The biggest improvement in the farm system is the number of impact bats. Adding Gordon and Butler makes the farm system a lot stronger. Huber and Lubanski also have All-Star offensive talent. The depth of starting pitching needs improvement. Beyond Cota and Buckner, the Royals don't have much to count on. Good to see that Eric Cordier will be back soon. Hopefully, he'll help out add to our starting pitching depth.
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