Thursday, July 14, 2005

Farm System: Strengths and Weaknesses

Looking at the Top 20 prospects from yesterday, there are some interesting observations. First of all, here's a breakdown of the Royals' depth and relative quality of prospects at each position.

Corner IF:
# of prospects in Top 20: 4
Ranking of the prospects: 2, 14, 18, 19
Average Ranking: 13
Location in the Minors: 2 Low A, 1 High A, 1 AA

Middle IF:
# of prospects in Top 20: 5
Ranking of the prospects: 6, 7, 10, 16, 20
Average Ranking: 12
Location in the Minors: 2 S Season, 2 AA, 1 AAA

Catcher:
# of prospects in Top 20: 1
Ranking of prospects: 11
Average Ranking: 11
Location in the Minors: 1 High A

Outfielders:
# of prospects in Top 20: 4
Ranking of prospects: 1, 4, 5. 9
Average Ranking: 5
Location in the Minors: 1 Low A, 2 High A, 1 AA

Starting Pitching:
# of prospects in Top 20: 4
Ranking of prospects: 3, 8, 13, 15
Average Ranking: 10
Location in the Minors: 2 Low A, 1 High A, 1 AA

Relief Pitching:
# of prospects in Top 20: 2
Ranking of prospects: 12, 17
Average Ranking: 14
Location in the Minors: 1 Low A, 1 AA

The most interesting observation is that the outfield depth and quality is the strongest compared to the other positions. So, why is Baird so obsessed with finding a young corner outfielder? Well, the Royals lack good power in the middle of the lineup. But, with Gordon, Huber, Lubanski and Butler likely to be in the majors or one stop away next year, it looks like the Royals will have 4 potential impact bats.

How many good starters do we have? Our best pitching prospects are in A ball and only one pitching prospect profiles as a frontline starter. This is the area that Baird should be focusing on. The Rangers can flat out rake, but are in 2nd place in the AL West and frequently find themselves there. What's one power hitting corner outfielder going to do? The Rangers have 7 players with more home runs than the Royals' home run leader. Adding one power bat is going to make a huge difference. A good starting rotation is the first step toward building a contender. The Royals' potentially great bullpen with Sisco, Burgos, Affeldt, MacDougal, and Nunez is wasted if they are always pitching in meaningless games after the starter gives up 7 runs in 3 innings.

My post about the farm system's strengths and weaknesses has turned into a rant about starting pitching. Overall, the Royals infield depth is pretty good. With Teahan, Berroa, and Gotay already looking like serviceable regulars and good depth in the farm system, this isn't an area of concern. Add in Gordon and Huber and the Royals have a couple of impact players at the corner infield spots. Catcher is still a problem, especially with Buck struggling offensively. If Buck can get on base more and hit 15 HRs, he'll be a solid catcher for the Royals. Part of his low CS% is probably attributed to the Royals' pitcher's failure to hold runners and the starter's underwhelming velocity. The other part has to do with Buck's slow release. There aren't many relief pitching prospects in the minors. Most of them are already here and we usually have plenty of failed starters to convert into relievers.

The farm system is still pretty strong considering the number of players the Royals have graduated over the past couple of years. It's still below-average. Some good trades could certainly help get the farm system back to where it needs to be. Anytime an organization has a prospect who projects as a utility infielder in the top 10, the farm system needs some work.

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