High Desert Home/Road Splits
Minor League stats can be very deceptive. The different leagues are hitter-friendly or pitcher-friendly. Prospects may be working on specific things that could hurt their stats. Individual ballparks may help a player's stats. So, analyzing minor league stats is a tough chore. High Desert is essentially the "Coors Field" of the minor and the California League is very hitter-friendly. The inflated stats make it very difficult to analyze how well the Royals' prospects at High Desert are doing, especially after being accustomed to the stats from the pitcher-friendly Carolina League.
I decided to analyze the home/road splits of Billy Butler and Chris Lubanski, the Royals' top prospects at High Desert. Both Butler and Lubanski are putting up very impressive numbers. Butler and Lubanski are on pace to hit about 35 HRs, something we haven't seen from a Royals' prospect in a while. Butler is 3rd in the league in HRs and Lubanski is 5th. Butler is among league leaders in most offensive categories. Butler and Lubanski are both very young for the league and are doing really well relative to the rest of the league. But, does playing at High Desert give them an advantage over the other players in the California League? The home/road splits should help answer this question.
Here are the cumulative home/road splits for Butler and Lubanski:
Oddly enough, the home/road splits are the exact opposite for the two players. Butler has done considerably better away from High Desert and Lubanski has done very well at High Desert. There is a huge home/road difference in Lubanski's slugging percentage. His slugging percentage is .639 at High Desert and .399 away from High Desert. This would tend to suggest that Lubanski's power is helped a lot by a hitter-friendly park. Butler's case is just the opposite. Butler's numbers actually improved on the road. Also worth noting, Lubanski's road numbers were consistently worse each month than his numbers at home. Butler's home/road splits tended to vary each month, with no particular trend. For the most part, Billy Butler has been consistently outstanding regardless of where he's playing. Chris Lubanski, on the other hand, seems to go on a tear everytime a homestand starts.
Billy Butler's home/road splits give additional creedance to his status as one of the top prospects in baseball. The ballpark factor doesn't appear to be a factor in his success. Butler may very well be hitting 500-foot blasts that would leave any park. Butler is very young for the league and is one of the best hitters in the league. Chris Lubanski is still young for the California League and his road numbers aren't awful. But, because of his home/road split, his stats are going to be inflated.
Butler has been pretty consistent throughout the season. He's been in a slump over the past week, hurting his July numbers. His June numbers are a small sample size because of an injury. Overall, he's been great and there's not much more room for Butler to improve as a hitter at High A.
Lubanski has steadily improved throughout the year. He got off to a terrible start, but has put up Butler-like numbers in June and July. Lubanski's home/road differential has decreased over the past couple months and his home/road splits are almost even in July. Hopefully, that's another sign that he's improving.
Note: Lubanski's HR total on minorleaguebaseball.com is 20. But, looking through the boxscores, I only counted 18.
I decided to analyze the home/road splits of Billy Butler and Chris Lubanski, the Royals' top prospects at High Desert. Both Butler and Lubanski are putting up very impressive numbers. Butler and Lubanski are on pace to hit about 35 HRs, something we haven't seen from a Royals' prospect in a while. Butler is 3rd in the league in HRs and Lubanski is 5th. Butler is among league leaders in most offensive categories. Butler and Lubanski are both very young for the league and are doing really well relative to the rest of the league. But, does playing at High Desert give them an advantage over the other players in the California League? The home/road splits should help answer this question.
Here are the cumulative home/road splits for Butler and Lubanski:
Oddly enough, the home/road splits are the exact opposite for the two players. Butler has done considerably better away from High Desert and Lubanski has done very well at High Desert. There is a huge home/road difference in Lubanski's slugging percentage. His slugging percentage is .639 at High Desert and .399 away from High Desert. This would tend to suggest that Lubanski's power is helped a lot by a hitter-friendly park. Butler's case is just the opposite. Butler's numbers actually improved on the road. Also worth noting, Lubanski's road numbers were consistently worse each month than his numbers at home. Butler's home/road splits tended to vary each month, with no particular trend. For the most part, Billy Butler has been consistently outstanding regardless of where he's playing. Chris Lubanski, on the other hand, seems to go on a tear everytime a homestand starts.Billy Butler's home/road splits give additional creedance to his status as one of the top prospects in baseball. The ballpark factor doesn't appear to be a factor in his success. Butler may very well be hitting 500-foot blasts that would leave any park. Butler is very young for the league and is one of the best hitters in the league. Chris Lubanski is still young for the California League and his road numbers aren't awful. But, because of his home/road split, his stats are going to be inflated.
Month-by-Month Breakdown
Butler has been pretty consistent throughout the season. He's been in a slump over the past week, hurting his July numbers. His June numbers are a small sample size because of an injury. Overall, he's been great and there's not much more room for Butler to improve as a hitter at High A.
Lubanski has steadily improved throughout the year. He got off to a terrible start, but has put up Butler-like numbers in June and July. Lubanski's home/road differential has decreased over the past couple months and his home/road splits are almost even in July. Hopefully, that's another sign that he's improving.
Note: Lubanski's HR total on minorleaguebaseball.com is 20. But, looking through the boxscores, I only counted 18.
posted by SoonerRoyal at 7:25 PM
1 Comments:
This is great stuff. It doesn't bode well for Lubanski's future, unfortunately. Butler, on the other hand, is a monster hitting prospect, and your analysis confirms that big time.
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