How to Fix the Rotation: Part II

Just to give you an idea of how bad the Royals' starting rotation is compared to the rest of the division, here's some interesting stats:

Starters with better ERAs than the Royals' best starter (Runelvys Hernandez):

White Sox: 4
Twins: 4
Indians: 3
Tigers: 3

Starter ERA (ML rank):

White Sox: 3.82 (6)
Twins: 3.99 (9)
Indians: 4.24 (14)
Tigers: 4.26 (16)
Royals: 5.87 (28)

The Twins have two good starters almost ready to enter the rotation as well. JD Durbin and Francisco Liriano have frontline starter stuff and are at AAA. Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, and Kyle Sleeth give the Tigers 3 starters with frontline starter stuff at AA or higher. The Indians have pretty good depth and upside in their farm system at the starting rotation. Our division is only going to get better.

The Royals clearly have a long way to go to catch up with these 4 teams. Are the Royals better off building a dominating bullpen that will be better than these 4 teams? Probably not. While the Royals could have one of the best power bullpens in baseball, the rest of the division already has 4 of the best bullpens in baseball.

Bullpen ERA (ML Rank):

Indians: 2.95 (1)
Twins: 3.14 (2)
White Sox: 3.20 (5)
Tigers: 3.41 (7)
Royals: 4.56 (23)

While our bullpen has certainly been better than this ranking shows, we still have some room to improve. If we become one of the top bullpens in baseball, we'll be in the same position as the other teams in the division. How is this going to give us any competitive edge in the division? I don't see it.

Our best chance to build a competitive team starts with the starting rotation. I think if the Royals add a No. 2 starter in the offseason, that's a good start. I think Greinke will probably be at least a league-average starter next year and could have a breakout year. Hernandez is probably a league-average starter with a few above-average years in his prime. So, that would give the Royals 3 league-average or slightly better starters on paper. The Royals still lack an ace and a strong back end of the rotation. To give the Royals the best chance to develop an ace, the Royals should keep Bautista in the rotation and try Sisco as well. This would give the Royals 3 starters (Greinke, Bautista, and Sisco) who are talented enough to become a true ace. If all 3 develop, then great. This gives the Royals the best chance to fill the void at the No. 1 starter spot. Hernandez won't work there, as he would be a No. 4 or No. 5 starter on the other teams in the division. The starting rotation is a huge problem for this team. I cannot emphasis that enough.

How To Fix The Rotation

There isn't much we can do this year to fix the rotation. We're pretty much stuck with the battered rotation we have. Going into next year, the Royals basically have two guys who I would consider locks for the rotation: Runelvys Hernandez and Zack Greinke. Hernandez has been the most consistent pitcher on the team. Greinke's potential will keep him in the rotation, unless he doesn't improve at all. Denny Bautista, if healthy, will probably get a spot in the rotation for the same reason as Greinke. DJ Carrasco and JP Howell will also compete for spots. If Carrasco continues to pitch well as a starter, he'll probably get a spot too.

Ultimately, the Royals have two choices when filling out the rotation. The Royals can continue to develop starters in the big leagues and keep them in the rotation, even if they have one of the worst ERAs in baseball. Or, the Royals can put the 5 best starters in the rotation based on performance. Either way, I don't think a rotation of Hernandez, Greinke, Carrasco, Bautista, and Howell is going to perform well over the course of a season. At some point, the Royals will have to get out of the developmental mode and start demanding performance. So, I think the Royals need to look for two starters:

1. Sign free agent starters or trade for starters: Problem here is that good starters cost lots of $$$ over 2 or 3 years and we don't have any expendable talent to trade away for a starter. I think the Royals will have to sign one good starter (No. 2/3 quality), even if they have to overpay for it. The free agent market is pretty bad for starters, so the price will be high. Signing someone like Anderson or another veteran to compete for the No. 5 spot or pitch in long relief would be a good idea for depth. The Royals always seem to run out of starting pitching in the middle of the season, so depth is crucial.

2. Convert one or more of our relievers into a starter: The Royals have a surplus of "power arms" in the bullpen, many of whom are converted starters. Affeldt, Nunez, Burgos, and Sisco were starters last year, so the transition wouldn't be too difficult. The difficult part is choosing who to convert into a starter. Here's a look at the case for each of the 4 pitchers:

Jeremy Affeldt: Affeldt is the only one of the 4 pitchers who has experience starting. His blister problems are done and his groin problem seem to be due to overthrowing in the bullpen. As a starter, Affeldt had an ERA of 4.34 in 2003 and an ERA of 5.25 in 2004. Affeldt struggled in the middle innings as a starter in 2005, which seemed to explain the increase in ERA. Overall, he wasn't great as a starter, but he's only thrown 174 innings as a starter. For a hard-throwing lefty with a great curve, that's pretty early to give up on him as a starter. Here's the dilemma with Affeldt: the Royals have hurt his development by changing his roles frequently. But, would you rather take a risk with Affeldt 2 two years left, or one of the other 3 much younger pitchers with 5 years left? The other part of the argument is that if Affeldt became a good starter, the Royals would have him for just 2 years as opposed to 5 years with the other 3. Tough call. I doubt Affeldt is eager to change roles again.

Andrew Sisco: Sisco was a starter last year in high A ball. He had a 4.21 ERA in 126 IP and struck out 134 and walked 65. Sisco's conditioning was a problem as the year progressed and he lost some velocity (happening some this year as well). His conditioning could certainly be worked on during the offseason. His control hasn't been great, but he has 3 quality pitches. He could develop into a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.

Ambiorix Burgos: Burgos was also a starter for the Burlington Bees. Burgos had a 4.38 ERA in 133 IP and struck out 172 and walked 75. It'd be interesting to see how Burgos would do in the rotation. He has great stuff, but his control probably isn't good enough to be a starter. He profiles better as a closer than the two pitchers above.

Leo Nunez: Nunez was also a starter last year in low A ball. Nunez has good control, although he throws the ball down the center of the plate too often. As a starter last year, Nunez pitched 144 innings and had an ERA of 3.13, struck out 140 and walked 46. Nunez's durability could be an issue as a starter. He's only pitched 100+ innings in the minors once. But, it hasn't been an issue yet.

It's a tough choice. If I had to pick, I would probably go with a rotation of a FA starter, Hernandez, Greinke, Bautista, and Howell/Carrasco with Anderson in long relief (if he comes back healthy and will sign) and Sisco to AA or AAA to get some experience as a starter and grab a spot in May or June (also has service time benefits as well). It's a lot easier to convert a starter to a reliever than convert a reliever into a starter. If the experiment fails, I don't think the Royals will ruin a young pitcher's career. Affeldt has always pitched well in the bullpen. I think it's worth the risk to convert Sisco into a starter. The Royals need quality starting pitching badly.

Who Goes and Who Stays?

With the trade deadline less than a week away, the trade rumors around Royals' players are increasing steadily. The Royals have several players that are drawing interest by contenders. Here's a look at who goes and who stays and what the Royals should get in return if they trade them:

What the Royals need: Not a corner outfielder. The corner outfield spot is pretty deep with Costa, Ambres, and Maier likely to compete for spots next year and Butler, Gordon (if signed and moved), and Lubanski likely to compete for spots in 2007. The Royals' biggest needs is quality starting pitching. With Hernandez being the only returning starter with a history of being league-average or better, the Royals need help here. Greinke, Bautista, and Sisco (if moved) have a lot of potential as starters, but have a lot of questionmarks as well. The Royals' farm system is nearly void of quality starting pitching prospects. Luis Cota is the only prospect who has frontline starter stuff. The Royals need to add high ceiling and top prospects, not seek a package of two or three for depth. The Royals have pretty good depth everywhere except the rotation. But, they need to add star-caliber talent wherever possible, preferably in the rotation.

Jeremy Affeldt: Affeldt has probably drawn the most interest of any Royals' player. Affeldt has been great since coming off the DL and has a 2.29 ERA this season. The lefty has a mid-90s fastball, a great curve, and an affordable $950K salary. Since MacDougal has won the closer's job for now, Affeldt has become the more expendable of the two. Affeldt is the Royals' most valuable commidity next to Sweeney, so he should bring a top prospect in return. The Royals should set the price high and ask for a top prospect. If the Royals refuse to get a top SP prospect, I'd aim for top outfield prospects, Felix Pie or Jeremy Hermida. The only reason to trade for outfield prospects is to get a significant upgrade at the corner outfield spot. From the Yankees, I like 19-year-old Phillip Hughes, but the Yankees might not give him up. The Royals don't have to trade Affeldt and shouldn't unless they get a top prospect.

Hughes Stats:
7-1, 1.97 ERA, 46 H, 72/16 K/BB in 68 2/3 IP for low Single-A Charleston

Possible suitors: Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Marlins, Braves, and likely many more
My prediction: Affeldt to the Yankees for Melky Cabrera and Sean Henn (Baird was reportedly scouting those players on the Yankees)
My hopeful prediction: Affeldt and Long for Phillip Hughes

Mike MacDougal: Basically, see Jeremy Affeldt. The same teams looking for a cheap, power arm in the bullpen will be interested in MacDougal. I'd much rather trade Affeldt because MacDougal has done very well as the closer this year. The Royals have a tough time finding a closer after Montgomery retired and I don't want to risk Burgos or Sisco being given the job prematurely.

My prediction: He stays

Terrence Long: Long has decent trade value for a team needing bench and outfield help. He hit .363/.388/.550 in June and .322/.365/.407 in July so far. Long needs to go or have a reduced role on the team. Ambres needs to play regularly to see if he can be an everyday player. Ambres looks like he'll add some much needed speed and can get on-base.

My prediction: He goes, thrown in with Affeldt or traded seperately

Jose Lima: Lima has pitched very well recently, pitching 5 consecutive quality starts. The Royals lack of starting pitching depth will keep the Royals from dealing Lima unless they get a great deal. One month ago, it looked like he'd be released, but with setbacks to Bautista and Anderson, we're stuck with him for better or worse.

My prediction: He stays

Mike Sweeney: Sweeney is always mentioned in rumors around the trade deadline. But, the Royals aren't looking to move Sweeney and are looking to add a bat. The Royals will probably listen to offers for Sweeney, but unless they get a great deal, he stays. The fan reaction to trading Sweeney could be devasting.

My prediction: He stays

David DeJesus/Emil Brown: The Yankees are also interested in the Royals' two best outfielders. It seems unlikely that the Royals would move these two players, but if they got a great offer, it's certainly possible. Baird said he'd listen to offers on any player.

My prediction: They stay

Financial Situation Part III: How to Spend the Surplus

I wonder if Allard read by blog and decided to send Wood down for a couple of weeks, which should make him a longshot to become a Super Two. Wood certainly doesn't have much to work on and I'd feel more confident allowing him start right away than Shawn Camp, who didn't pitch very well today. But, the Royals should be able to avoid a year of arbitration, which will give the Royals some more payroll room in 2007. Greinke might be next.

The 2006 Roster Filled From Within:

Catchers (2):
C John Buck (325)
C Phillips (FA) (325)

Infielders (7):
1B Mike Sweeney (11000)
1B Justin Huber (325)
2B Ruben Gotay (325)
SS Angel Berroa (2000)
3B Mark Teahan (325)
Util Mike Aviles (FA) (325)
Util Donnie Murphy (325)
FA possibilities: Tony Graffanino, or anyone but Desi

Outfielders (4):
LF Shane Costa/Chip Ambres (FA) (325)
CF David DeJesus (325)
RF Emil Brown/Mitch Maier (arbitration guess: $2 million)
OF Mitch Maier (325)
FA: Matt Lawton, Jose Cruz, Brian Giles, Jacque Jones

Starting Pitchers (5):
SP Zack Greinke (350)
SP Runelvys Hernandez (arbitration guess: $2 million)
SP Andrew Sisco (325)
SP Denny Bautista (325)
SP JP Howell/DJ Carrasco/Kyle Snyder (325)
FA: Kevin Millwood, AJ Burnett, Matt Morris, Estaben Loaiza, Paul Byrd

Relievers (6):
CL Mike MacDougal (375)
RP Ambiorix Burgos (325)
RP Mike Wood (325)
RP Jeremy Affeldt (arbitration guess: $1.5 million)
RP Andrew Sisco (FA) (325)
RP Leo Nunez (325)
-other possibilities: Jimmy Gobble, Jonah Bayliss, Kyle Snyder
Total Cost without arbitration: $19.250 million
Total Cost with arbitration guesses: $24.750 million

The free agent crop is pretty thin. The Royals' biggest need, a quality starter, will be tough to get with the poor quality available. The best the Royals can hope for is that Clemens, Burnett, and Rogers distract the top spenders and the Royals can sign a No. 2 or 3 starter at a reasonable price. The Royals seem to like a veteran bench, so I expect them to sign a veteran utility guy and a veteran backup catcher. The coveted power-hitting corner outfielder will be tough to find. The Royals could sign Lawton or Giles until Costa, Maier, or Ambres are fully ready. The Royals problem is that those 3 OF prospects haven't really shown good power in the minors (except Ambres I guess), so I'd be in favor of keeping them in the minors until they do.

I really don't see any feasible way for the Royals to spend $25 million this offseason with a thin free agent crop. While the Royals have $25 million this offseason, that figure drops significantly in 2007 because of arbitration. So, the Royals may be limited in contract length. The Royals can do a couple different things:

1. Save the money and spend it in 2007 and beyond when the Royals are contending. I doubt the money would actually get saved, but it would give the Royals the ability to sign a key player or two later on.

2. Spend the money on one or two solid, above-average players. The Royals could sign a No. 2 starter and a corner outfielder for about $12-15 million/yr. With the outfielder, I'd prefer a one-year deal with a club option. That gives our young outfielders time to develop and if they don't, we have a veteran outfielder to fall back on.