Saturday, July 30, 2005

How to Fix the Rotation: Part II

Just to give you an idea of how bad the Royals' starting rotation is compared to the rest of the division, here's some interesting stats:

Starters with better ERAs than the Royals' best starter (Runelvys Hernandez):

White Sox: 4
Twins: 4
Indians: 3
Tigers: 3

Starter ERA (ML rank):

White Sox: 3.82 (6)
Twins: 3.99 (9)
Indians: 4.24 (14)
Tigers: 4.26 (16)
Royals: 5.87 (28)

The Twins have two good starters almost ready to enter the rotation as well. JD Durbin and Francisco Liriano have frontline starter stuff and are at AAA. Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya, and Kyle Sleeth give the Tigers 3 starters with frontline starter stuff at AA or higher. The Indians have pretty good depth and upside in their farm system at the starting rotation. Our division is only going to get better.

The Royals clearly have a long way to go to catch up with these 4 teams. Are the Royals better off building a dominating bullpen that will be better than these 4 teams? Probably not. While the Royals could have one of the best power bullpens in baseball, the rest of the division already has 4 of the best bullpens in baseball.

Bullpen ERA (ML Rank):

Indians: 2.95 (1)
Twins: 3.14 (2)
White Sox: 3.20 (5)
Tigers: 3.41 (7)
Royals: 4.56 (23)

While our bullpen has certainly been better than this ranking shows, we still have some room to improve. If we become one of the top bullpens in baseball, we'll be in the same position as the other teams in the division. How is this going to give us any competitive edge in the division? I don't see it.

Our best chance to build a competitive team starts with the starting rotation. I think if the Royals add a No. 2 starter in the offseason, that's a good start. I think Greinke will probably be at least a league-average starter next year and could have a breakout year. Hernandez is probably a league-average starter with a few above-average years in his prime. So, that would give the Royals 3 league-average or slightly better starters on paper. The Royals still lack an ace and a strong back end of the rotation. To give the Royals the best chance to develop an ace, the Royals should keep Bautista in the rotation and try Sisco as well. This would give the Royals 3 starters (Greinke, Bautista, and Sisco) who are talented enough to become a true ace. If all 3 develop, then great. This gives the Royals the best chance to fill the void at the No. 1 starter spot. Hernandez won't work there, as he would be a No. 4 or No. 5 starter on the other teams in the division. The starting rotation is a huge problem for this team. I cannot emphasis that enough.

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