Prospect Update/Angels Series Notes

Who's Hot:

The Royals' top hitting prospect Billy Butler continues to put up great numbers for the Mavericks. Butler hit his 19th home run tonight, matching his age. Butler hasn't made an error yet in left field and he got his first outfield assist on Friday. If Butler's range is good enough, he could move to right field. Butler has a strong arm and could throw 92-93 mph in high school. Wranglers' outfielder Mitch Maier continues to hit a lot of doubles. Maier now has 35 doubles and 10 home runs on the season. Maier's future could be in centerfield and he may be the Royals' best defensive outfielder. Bees' reliever Chad Blackwell is having a very good season. Blackwell is 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA. Blackwell has 46 strikeouts and just 12 walks in 37 innings.

Who's Not:

The Royals' top pitching prospect Luis Cota had a rough June. Cota had a 7.96 ERA in his last 4 starts, struck out 13, walked 12 in 20 1/3 innings. After listening to the first few innings of the Bees' game on Thursday, it didn't sound like Cota was getting hit hard. But, the combination of too many walks and bloop hits really hurt him. Cota is just 19 years old and in his first full season of professional baseball. The Royals' second first-round pick struggled in his first start back from the DL. Matt Campbell pitched just 2 inning, allowed 6 runs, walked 4, and struck out 0.


The Royals' offense has been dreadful, getting shutout last night by former Royals Paul Byrd. The Royals have not only played poorly, but they couldn't even bat in the right order! David DeJesus led off for the Royals, but Angel Berroa was written in on the official lineup card. So, DeJesus's leadoff single was nullified, which would have been just 1 of 3 hits all night had it counted. Hernandez pitched better than his line indicated (6 1/3 IP 5 ERs). Hernandez allowed 3 doubles in the 6th inning and gave up two runs, but got out of it. Hernandez struck out 6 and walked 1. His command was very sharp and his changeup was very effective.

Tonight, the offense wasn't much better, but the Royals got on the scoreboard. Lima had a decent outing and kept the Royals in the game. The home plate umpire didn't help him much, but a veteran pitcher should know how to deal with that by now. Bartolo Colon was in control of this game. Ruben Gotay got to him in the eighth inning, when he singled to right, scoring Graffanino and Brown. Gotay has put together a solid season and shown a lot of improvement. Gobble's command was pretty wobbly in the ninth, but he got through it. Gobble hasn't been throwing his good curveball as much. That was a good pitch for him back when he was starting. Overall, a disappointing start to the homestand. A good outing by Greinke would be a big uplift for the team.

Royals' Future Payrolls

The Royals will get a mulligan on some bad free agent signings and trades after this season. The Royals lose the contracts of Jose Lima, Brian Anderson, Terrence Long, Eli Marrero, Scott Sullivan (~$15 million) as well as much better contracts of Matt Stairs and Tony Graffanino ($2.3 million). The Royals current payroll is $36.8 million. So, the Royals are in good shape payroll-wise next year. David Glass has said that next year's payroll will be close to $50 million and I have no reason to believe it won't. But, that means the Royals have about $25-30 million to spend to get up to that payroll level. How they plan on doing that, I have no idea. Except for Sweeney, the Royals haven't given any free agent more than a 2-year contract, and Sweeney was a known commidity to the organization. If the Royals are going to spend $25-30 million, they'll have to spend it on good players who may ask for longer than a 2-year contract. While the payroll is going to be low next year, more players will hit arbitration in 2007 and 2008 which will drive the payroll up. So, $30 million in new contracts may be affordable now, but not necessarily in a couple of years.

Here are the player's that are under contract for next year (salary/approx. salary in thousands of dollars):
Mike Sweeney (11000), Angel Berroa (2000), Jeremy Affeldt (arbitration), Runelvys Hernandez (arbitration), Emil Brown (arbitration, not sure about service time), Mike MacDougal (375), Zack Greinke (350), David DeJesus (350), Mike Wood (325), John Buck (325), Denny Bautista (325), Mark Teahan (325), Ruben Gotay (325), Andrew Sisco (325), JP Howell (325), Ambiorix Burgos (325), Leo Nunez (325), Kyle Snyder (325), DJ Carrasco (350), Justin Huber (325)

2006 Roster filled entirely from within

Catchers (2):
C John Buck (325)
C Tupman/Phillips (325)

Infielders (7):
1B Mike Sweeney (11000)
1B Justin Huber (325)
2B Ruben Gotay (325)
SS Angel Berroa (2000)
3B Mark Teahan (325)
Util Mike Aviles (325)
Util Murphy (325)
FA possibilities: Tony Graffanino

Outfielders (4):
LF Shane Costa (325)
CF David DeJesus (325)
RF Emil Brown/Mitch Maier (arbitration guess: $2 million)
OF Mitch Maier (325)
FA: Matt Lawton, Jose Cruz, Brian Giles

Starting Pitchers (5):
SP Zack Greinke (350)
SP Runelvys Hernandez (arbitration guess: $1.5 million)
SP Andrew Sisco (325)
SP Denny Bautista (325)
SP JP Howell/DJ Carrasco/Kyle Snyder (325)
FA: Kevin Millwood, AJ Burnett, Chris Carpenter, Estaben Loaiza

Relievers (6):
CL Mike MacDougal (375)
RP Ambiorix Burgos (325)
RP Mike Wood (325)
RP Jeremy Affeldt (arbitration guess: $1.5 million)
RP Andrew Sisco (325)
RP Leo Nunez (325)
-other possibilities: Jimmy Gobble, Jonah Bayliss, Kyle Snyder

Total Cost without arbitration: $19.250 million
Total Cost with arbitration guesses: $24.250 million

With a base payroll of $25 million, the Royals are halfway to $50 million. How do you spend the other $25 million? I'll save that for another post. I included notable FAs who the Royals could pursue.

Now on to 2007:

In 2007, the roster pretty much stays the same. The Royals major financial commitments are Mike Sweeney ($11 million) and Angel Berroa ($3.25 million). The Royals have a lot more players going into arbitration in 2007. Although, Gobble, Snyder, Carrasco, and Brown may not be long-term guys. Several of last year's rookies could be Super 2's. Super twos are players who rank in the top 17% in service time among players with between 2 and 3 years of service. From what I've read, the cutoff is usually between 130 and 140 days and the minimum cutoff has been 128 days. So, I would assume DeJesus is a Super Two, Greinke 50-60% chance, Wood 60-70% chance. Royals might get hammered in 2007. It might have been worth having Chris George get pounded for two weeks while Greinke stayed at AAA so we could avoid Super 2 status. Here are the rest of the players eligible for arbitration in 2006-2007 offseason:

Third-year: Jeremy Affeldt
Second-year: Emil Brown, Runelvys Hernandez
First-year: Mike MacDougal, Jimmy Gobble, Kyle Snyder, DJ Carrasco
Super Twos? Zack Greinke (2 yrs, 135 days), David DeJesus (2 yrs, 146 days), Mike Wood (2 yrs, 140 days), John Buck (2 yrs, 101 days)

FAs after 2007: Mike Sweeney, Jeremy Affeldt

2008:

Major Financial Commitments: Angel Berroa ($4.75), long-term contract for Greinke (hoping)

The Royals unload Sweeney's contract in 2007. Berroa's contract starts to be a bit of a burden, but not too bad. By 2008, I think the Royals payroll could be near $60 million if the Royals are competing. Glass has shown that he is willing to spend money if the Royals are contending and put up a $53 million payroll last year. But, a significant portion of that payroll will be going to the young players.

2007-2008 offseason Arbitration eligible:
First-Year: Zack Greinke, David DeJesus, Mike Wood, John Buck, Mark Teahan, Denny Bautista, Ruben Gotay, Andrew Sisco
Second-Year: Mike MacDougal, Jimmy Gobble, Kyle Snyder, DJ Carrasco
Third-Year: Runelvys Hernandez

FAs after 2008: Runelvys Hernandez, Angel Berroa (option for 2009)

Beyond 2008:
FAs after 2009: Mike MacDougal, Jimmy Gobble, Kyle Snyder, DJ Carrasco, Angel Berroa (if option is picked up)
FAs after 2010: Zack Greinke, David DeJesus, Mike Wood, John Buck, Mark Teahan, Denny Bautista, Ruben Gotay, Andrew Sisco

Overall, the Royals have a lot of young players under their control and don't really lose the core of the youth until after 2010. That will give the Royals a chance to be competitive from 2007-2010. In 2006, the Royals are in great shape financially. Their base payroll will be near $25 million, so they'll have up to $25 million in free agency. But, in 2007 and particularly 2008, the Royals will have a lot of players in their arbitration years, so the financial leeway will be much less. So, the Royals may be somewhat limited in the length of contracts they can offer. The best method would be to sign good FAs for two-year deals worth $10-14 million with an club option in 2008. That would help them add some talent to help make this team competitive over the next couple of years and keep the player in 2008 if the team is competitive.

Ending Road Trip on a Good Note

Royals won 3-1 today. DJ Carrasco had another fine start for the Royals. Carrasco has had 7 quality starts in his first 9 starts this season. One of the starts, at Coors Field, I'll give him a free pass on. Can Carrasco keep it up? I think he may be able to. Carrasco's fastball has good movement on it and gets a lot of groundballs. His slider is still a good pitch and his curveball has really improved. His curveball drops off the table and is a legit strikeout pitch. Carrasco's control has been a problem, but he's been able to work around the walks for the most part. Carrasco has walked 21 and struck out 22 in 55 2/3 innings. Those aren't the kind of numbers that suggest long-term success as a starter. But, Carrasco has shown good poise and the ability to work out of jams. Carrasco also gets a lot of groundballs and poorly hit balls that help him get outs without striking a lot of guys out.

On another positive note, our outfielders are have a very good season. David DeJesus is a solid overall player. What I like most about DeJesus is his plate discipline and ability to get on-base. Ideally, a leadoff hitter should be a good basestealer, which DeJesus isn't. But, he's still pretty quick and gets on-base a lot. Emil Brown has emerged as the power-hitting outfielder that Baird desperately searched for in the offseason. Brown has an OBP of around .400 for the months of May and June. He's slugging over .500 during both months as well. Shane Costa has played well so far. Costa was hitting just .274 at Wichita with 5 HRs in 164 ABs. Since being promoted, Costa is hitting .313 with 2 HRs in 48 ABs for the Royals.

The Royals broke a 8-game losing streak today. But, there were some things that really bothered me during the losing streak. First of all, why isn't Buddy Bell playing Justin Huber? In the past couple of games, he's been DHing Terrence Long. So much for giving Huber a taste of the big leagues. I really hope the Royals can ship Long out of Kansas City. I'm tired of Costa and Huber losing playing time to an 4th outfielder who isn't in the future of this team. The other major setback this year has been the play of shortstop Angel Berroa. Berroa has only gotten worse since his rookie year. Berroa's defense was improving until today, when he made an error late in the game that could have cost the Royals the game. He had another bad play that should have been an error earlier in the game. Berroa's plate discipline has been terrible. He's struck out 58 times already and walked just 11. Berroa's power has disappeared since his rookie year. He hit 17 HRs as a rookie and has hit just 5 so far. Berroa also hasn't been successful stealing bases this year. Two years ago, Berroa looked like a 20-20 player. Now, the Royals may be looking for his replacement.

Organization Analysis: Outfielders

The outfield has certainly been the most talked about need in the organization. The Royals actually have some depth here. The Royals also have a couple potential star players if they can play good enough defense in the outfield.

Corner Outfield:

Emil Brown has been a nice surprise for the Royals. After posting a .161/.254/.339 line in April, it was hard to see what the Royals saw in Emil Brown. But, since Brown began playing everyday, he's been a completely different player. Brown's OPS in May was .895 and is 1.067 so far in June. Brown has a good approach at the plate and has shown pretty good power. He's 30 years old, so Brown isn't a long-term option. But, if he continues to hit well, he'd be a cheap, productive stopgap player.

Terrence Long has been hitting much better recently. He hasn't shown much power, but is a good defender and decent 4th outfielder. Long is most likely trade bait.

Shane Costa is one of the outfielders of the future. Costa is a good contact hitter and should develop power. Costa could develop 20 HR power as he learns to pull the ball.

Prospects: Mitch Maier, Chris Lubanski, Billy Butler, Chad Santos

Mitch Maier is putting together a solid year. Maier was promoted to Wichita and has hit .237 so far. It may take him a while to adjust to Wichita, as he struggled some after being promoted to Wilmington last year. Maier has good speed and has hit a lot of doubles. He could challenge DeJesus as the future centerfielder. Lubanski has taken a step back this year. Lubanski has hit 12 HRs, but has .235 batting average. He's also struck out 66 times in 226 ABs. If he can improve his plate discipline and make more contact, Lubanski might be in the Royals' future. Billy Butler is beginning to learn how to play outfield. He's the Royals' best prospect and could fill a major need in the organization. Chad Santos has also made the switch to OF. 24-year-old Santos has pretty good power, but strikes out too much. His future could be as a 4th or 5th outfielder.

Organization Analysis: Infielders

The Royals have a pretty good group of young infielders already at the major league level. The Royals also have pretty good depth, particularly at the middle infield spots. Overall, the infield should become a strength over the next few years, giving the Royals some potential trade bait.

Catchers:

Overall, this is probably the weakest infield position in the organization. John Buck currently has an OPS under .600. He's among the bottom third of catchers in base runners caught stealing. Buck does have very good leadership potential and is solid defensively behind the plate. Buck also hit 16 HRs in his first 381 ABs, which suggests he could develop 15-25 HR power at some point. If his power develops and he can hit above .240, the Royals won't have to worry about the organization's lack of catching prospects.

Prospects: Adam Donachie, Paul Phillips, Matt Tupman

Donachie is still pretty young. Donachie's never lived up to his potential, mainly because of injuries. The 21-year-old's line .262/.323/.385 is alright for a catcher. Paul Phillips and Matt Tupman project as backups.

First Base/DH

Mike Sweeney is still the club leader and best hitter on the team. His defense has improved considerably, albeit to league-average at best. If the Royals decide to trade Sweeney, Huber could take over. Matt Stairs has been a solid bat for the Royals and could bring a good prospect near the trade deadline.

Prospects: Justin Huber, Billy Butler, Kila Kaaihue, Chad Santos

Justin Huber is the heir apparent for Mike Sweeney. Huber has great on-base skills and should develop 20 HR power. Huber still needs some more time to polish his defensive skills, but should be a starter by 2006. Billy Butler is the Royals' best prospect. Butler would be in KC by 2006 if he had a defensive position nailed down. The Royals will try him in left field, but he'll likely end up at 1B or DH. Kila Kaaihue is having a great season at High Desert, with a .352/.443/.542 line. Kaaihue could end up as trade bait unless Huber or Butler don't make it in the big leagues. Chad Santos has begun playing left field and having a solid season at Omaha, but is a fringe prospect.

Second Base:

Gotay is having a decent year. His .236 average has a lot of room for improvement. Gotay has shown some power, particularly on inside fastballs. Defensively, Gotay's range is somewhat limited, but he doesn't make very many errors. Gotay will probably be a useful regular with a .270 average and 10-12 HRs.

Prospects: Donnie Murphy

Murphy's offensive numbers are similar to Gotay's throughout the minors. Murphy is better defensively, with a stronger arm and better footwork. If Gotay doesn't show more improvement offensively, Murphy could get a shot, perhaps as soon as late this season.

Shortstop:

Berroa had a great rookie season, but looks like he'll never match it. His strikeout/walk ratio has gotten progressively worse and he hasn't had much success stealing bases. Berroa has been better defensively, especially with Teahan at 3rd base. Berroa has the tools to be a good hitter and could recapture his rookie form if he improves his plate discipline. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening.

Prospects: Mike Aviles, Andres Blanco, Mario Lisson, Chris McConnell, Josh Johnson, (Jeffrey Bianchi), (Shawn Hayes)

Aviles may have a better bat than Gotay and Murphy. Defensively, he appears to be inadequate as an everyday shortstop. He'll have to improve his defense to become an everyday player. Right now, he projects as a utility infielder with a good bat. Blanco is a gold-glove shortstop, but he has a ways to go offensively. He's still pretty young, so he has plenty of time to develop offensively. Lisson is a potential 5-tool shortstop. He could develop plus-power and has the tools to play anywhere in the infield. Johnson and McConnell were drafted last year and will be at Idaho Falls. Bianchi and Hayes were drafted this season and will most likely head to Arizona. Royals have very good depth at shortstop.


Third Base:

The Royals traded for Mark Teahan last season to be their first basemen of the future. The Royals also selected Alex Gordon with their second-overall pick. Who is the third basemen of the future? Only time will tell. Teahan may develop power as he starts to pull the ball more. Teahan hit 14 HRs last year and hasn't begun to pull the ball, so that's promising. He's still too tentative at the plate and strikes out too much. Teahan should become an above-average defender at third base.

Prospects: (Alex Gordon), Mario Lisson

Lisson may get moved to 3B for depth. Gordon, assuming he signs, instantly becomes one of the Royals' top prospects. Gordon is projected to have 25-30 HR power, according to the Royals. The main question is whether he can stay at 3B. Unlike Butler, most people think he can become a pretty good 3B defensively. If not, Gordon should have the speed and the arm to be a good RF.

Overall Grade:
1. Current Infielders' Performance: C
2. Current Infielders' Potential: B- (lot of young players, but no real impact guys)
3. Current Prospects Depth: B+
4. Current Prospects Potential: A-

Organization Analysis: Bullpen

The bullpen is quickly becoming a strength in the Royals' organization. The Royals have 5 guys who can throw in the mid to upper 90s. The weakness of the bullpen is the closer spot. The Royals have tried several different guys and none of the Royals' young arms have been consistent enough to keep the job.

Middle Relief:

Mike Wood has done a pretty good job in middle relief for the Royals. He seems to have a good feel for pitching and has a good sinker. Wood should be a solid middle reliever for the Royals for the next few years.

Prospects: Failed/Fringe Starters (Gobble, Middleton, Tamayo, etc.)

Set-up/Closer:

The Royals have 5 guys who have good enough stuff to be closers.

1. Mike MacDougal: Right now, the Royals closer is Mike MacDougal. He's been very inconsistent and quite scary to watch in save situations. But, he's had pretty good success recently. If he has command of his fastball and slider consistently, he could be a very good closer.

2. Jeremy Affeldt: Affeldt has also been tried in the closer's role, but injuries have made it difficult to determine whether or not he can handle it. He has a good fastball that hit upwards of 97 mph and a curveball that's one of the best in the American League.

3. Andrew Sisco: Sisco's future could be as the team's closer or as a starter. Hopefully, the Royals give him a chance to be a starter. His strikeout rate has been phenomenal, averaging 10.53 K/9 IP. Control and endurance will determine whether or not he can become a good starter. He projects to add some velocity as well. If he doesn't become a starter, Sisco is and will be a very good set-up man/closer.

4. Ambiorix Burgos: Burgo's fastball might be the best on the team. Burgo can hit 98-99 mph with his fastball. He needs to improve the command of his splitter. Once that comes, he should be a very good closer. Burgos seems to have the right mentality for a closer.

5. Leo Nunez: Nunez looks like a little kid, but throws like a 6'6" 220 lbs pitcher. Nunez's fastball ranges from 94-97 mph. Nunez could be a shutdown set-up man for the Royals.

Prospects: Colt Griffin :), Ryan Braun, Chad Blackwell, Nate Moore

Colt Griffin was just for fun. Ryan Braun has a good fastball, but has struggled a lot this year. Chad Blackwell is having success at Burlington. Blackwell has a 90 mph fastball and a good slider. Blackwell's strength is changing speeds and good command. Moore was the Royals' fourth round pick last year. Moore has a low 90s fastball with good sinking action.

Overall Grade:
1. Current Relievers' Performance: B (not too bad considering they are so young)
2. Current Relievers' Potential: A
3. Current Prospects Depth: C-
4. Current Prospects Potential: C-

What to do this season: The Royals need to protect their young arms and make sure they don't overuse them. This is particularly important with Sisco, as he's had conditioning problems in the past.

What to do this offseason: The Royals need at least one veteran reliever in the bullpen, preferably someone who can close if necessary. The Royals also need to decide whether they want Sisco to be a starter or a reliever and stick with it.

Organization Analysis: Starting Rotation

I figured with the draft coming up, it'd be a good idea to do an analysis of the Royals' organization. It's also a good time as the Royals may make some trades and other moves to fix weaknesses in the organization. I guess the best way to do this is to break it down into starting rotation, bullpen, infielders, and outfielders. I'll start with pitching and finish the others in a subsequent thread.

Starting Pitching: The Royals starting pitching remains a weakness, with the staff ERA that's 2nd worst in the majors and has pitched the fewest number of innings. Building a good starting rotation is the first step in turning a team around.

#1 starter

Zack Greinke should be the leader for the Royals over the next 5 years and hopefully beyond. Greinke has cut back on his HR totals, but his control hasn't been quite as good as last year. It may take him a while to figure out how to use all of his pitches effectively, but he should emerge as a true ace by 2006.

Prospects: None really profile as a No. 1 starter

#2 starter

Denny Bautista has the upside of a No. 2 starter. Bautista has 3 potential plus pitches. However, his inconsistent command of his secondary pitches may keep him from developing into a solid starter. Bautista has tremendous upside as a starter, but he also is probably the most likely to fail as a starter.
If converted to a starter, Andrew Sisco has the upside of being a No. 2 starter, perhaps a No. 1 starter. Sisco has a great fastball and improving off-speed stuff. His command of his fastball has improved considerably as well. His strikeout rate is very high, but so are his walk totals. Sisco is currently in the bullpen, but could be moved to the rotation.

Prospects: Luis Cota (Burlington), Eric Cordier (Ext. Spring)

Cota has a very good fastball with good movement and a good slider. He has two-plus pitches and is doing very well at Burlington. Mr. Cordier's son is difficult to project, but he has the potential for three plus pitches.

#3 starter

Royals don't really have anyone on the current staff who is a true No. 3 starter.

Prospects: JP Howell (Wichita)

Howell has had a very good season at High Desert and Wichita. He should be ready by next season and should develop quickly.


#4 starter

Runelvys Hernandez is probably closest to a true No. 4 starter. Hernandez has struggled this year, possibly because of lost velocity and command. As that returns, he should become a league-average pitcher.

Prospects: Billy Buckner (High Desert), Matt Campbell (Burlington)

Billy Buckner projects as a #3/4 starter. He has a low 90s fastball and an excellent curveball. His changeup has potential to be a good pitch. Matt Campbell had better velocity last year, but it's dropped into the mid to upper 80s this season. He has a very good curveball. His control has been poor this season. No. 4 starter might be pushing it.

#5 starter

Here's where the list gets long. The Royals' best candidates for the back of the rotation are, in no particular order: Kyle Snyder, Mike Wood, Jimmy Gobble, DJ Carrasco, and many others. Baird will probably sign a couple of them this offseason. The #5 starter spot could end up with one of the Royals' failed prospects/borderline prospects. Kyle Middleton, Danny Tamayo, Brian Bass, and Mike Stodolka come to mind. The Royals have a surplus here, no need to acquire more. The thing I fear most is that the Royals will try and fill out the rotation with these guys.

Prospects: Kyle Middleton (Wichita), Dusty Hughes (High Desert), Devon Lowery (Ext Spring), Jason Kaanoi (High Desert)

Overall Grade:
1. Current Starters' Performance: D
2. Current Starters' Potential: B-
3. Current Prospects Depth: C-
4. Current Prospects Potential: C+

What to do this season: Royals need to add some more starting pitching prospects into the system. Last year's draft added 5 solid prospects who project from a #2 to #4 starter. The best way to do this is probably by trading veterans to acquire pitching prospects. The Royals need to pick up some pitchers with high upside since they don't have many picks in the early rounds. The back of the rotation should fill in fine, the Royals lack prospects who project as #1-#3 starters.

What to do this offseason: Again, try and trade any veterans not in the future for starting pitching prospects. The Royals also need to acquire a No. 2 and No. 4 starter, probably through free agency. If you aren't looking for a #1 starter, there are quite a few experienced starters available. With $18 million coming off the payroll and the Royals already being $10-15 million under the Glass salary cap, the Royals can afford to sign two solid veteran starters.