The Royals need to make some major changes in the organization. Since the Baird era began, the Royals are now 340-503 (.403). The signs of progress are becoming few and far between. Every game that I see Terrance Long and Joe McEwing in the lineup, it makes me wonder if the Royals even believe in the "youth movement". The young position players haven't made much progress, with the exception of David DeJesus (who had plenty of minor league seasoning). I can't say I have much confidence in Berroa, Gotay, Teahan, and Buck developing into even average major leaguers. Our rotation is awful. Greinke and Bautista have a lot of talent, but aren't putting it together yet. Hernandez seems to have peaked as a #3 starter and isn't showing signs of being more than that. The bullpen is promising with all of the power arms, but the awful rotation will prevent it from pitching in a lot of meaningful games.
Major Change #1: Fire Allard Baird
Before this year, I was never very impressed or displeased with the job Baird has done. The 2003 fluke the best part of his tenure, with the Royals winning 83 games. But, that was more a function of a horrible division that masked an otherwise mediocre team. In 2002 and 2004, the Royals lost 100+ games, setting franchise records for losses. The 2005 team isn't any better, on pace to lose 105 games. Most GMs would be fired if their teams consistently lose 100 games, but Baird's job seems very safe at the moment.
Here's the case for why Baird should be fired:
1. Free Agent Signing Failures: Baird has done a terrible job in free agency and this is an area he hasn't shown any improvement. Lima, Anderson, May, Sullivan, Gonzalez, Santiago, Lopez, Knoublach, and so forth have all failed to fill the club's needs. This is a critical part of the job. The Royals looked to make the 2004 team into a contender and Baird's free agent choices sealed the team's fate as the second worst team in baseball. With $25+ million available to be spent this offseason, I have a tough time trusting him with that much money.
2. Trades: Baird hasn't excelled in this area. The Damon trade netted Berroa and a overpaid closer. Berroa continues to frustrate Royals fans with his above-average power, fielding ability, and speed, but his awful plate discipline and lack of focus in the field make him a below-average shortstop. The Jermaine Dye trade was horrible. The Beltran trade is still an unknown, but the early returns aren't terribly promising. Mike Wood looks like a decent No. 5 starter or long reliever. Mark Teahan, if he develops power, will be a Joe Randa-type 3rd basemen. John Buck has struggled mightily, but has shown some promise. Overall, the Royals didn't acquire any impact players in any of these key deals. Baird has done well in some small deals: Huber for Bautista, Bautista for Grimsley, Nunez for Santiago, Graffanino for Cedeno and Ambres. Baird has also made some poor small deals, Graeme Lloyd for whoever, Eli Marrero for Jorge Vasquez, come to mind. Overall, I think Baird has done a below-average job in his trades.
3. Farm System: The Royals have a below-average farm system. The Royals have a few impact players in Huber, Butler, and Gordon (if he signs). But, the Royals don't any depth at catcher or 3rd base (unless Gordon signs), and most of the middle infield depth is still in the low minors. The Royals farm system is almost absent of pitching prospects. Luis Cota is the only starter who has significant upside. The lack of impact players and depth makes the farm system a weakness. Most baseball publications and websites have the Royals farm system ranked among the worst in baseball. Baird has done a terrible job in this area.
4. Drafts: Baird and his scouting department have improved their drafts during the Baird era. The 2000 draft netted DeJesus and Gotay. The 2001 draft was a complete disaster. The 2002 draft looks good, with Greinke, Murphy, and Bayliss already making it to the majors. The 2003 draft was outfielder heavy and hasn't paid any dividends yet. The Royals picked Chris Lubanski with their highest pick in history, but he has been a disappointment so far. Luis Cota, Mitch Maier, Mike Aviles and Shane Costa are pretty good prospects, helping the 2003 draft. The 2004 draft looks solid, picking up one of the best hitting prospects in the minors, Billy Butler. JP Howell has already made his major league debut. The 2005 draft looks pretty good early on, assuming Gordon signs. Bianchi is having a great debut and looks like a cost-effective steal. The trio of college catchers (Howell, Everett, Thibault) help fill a critical need in the organization. Overall, Baird has done a average job drafting, with noticeable improvement.
5. Hiring Organizational Personnel: Baird made the mistake of hiring Tony Pena and stuck with him too long. Buddy Bell looks alright so far. Bell has instilled discipline and the team looks better than Pena's squad. The Royals have had a lot of trouble finding a good pitching coach. The early returns on Guy Hansen are mixed. While he has seemed to really have helped the bullpen (particularly MacDougal), the rotation is still awful. Greinke's regression is especially disappointing. Ultimately, Baird is responsible for the carousel of pitching coaches.
6. Assessment of Team Needs: Baird has done a medicore job of assessing the team needs and focusing too much on one specific need. This year, it's been the power-hitting corner outfielder. Not only has he spent a year focusing on it, but it appears that he wouldn't accept other prospects in return for Affeldt except a top OF prospect (KC Star said the price for Affeldt was the PH corner OF). The Mariners got the Marlins' top right-handed prospect Yomany Bozardo for Ron Villone. The Royals starting rotation is a bigger need than the outfield. Baird also demanded a 3rd basemen and a catcher for Beltran instead of getting the best talent available. You can always go out and sign a 3rd basemen and a catcher. But, you can't get a couple of top prospects with All-Star potential everyday. The big trades should have focused on getting back top prospects who could eventually be the caliber of the player you traded.
Reasons to Keep Baird or Give Him More Time:
1. Baird has developed a core of young players that will be together for the next 4 or 5 years. Whether they are any good or not, only time will tell. But, the patience of Royals fans is running thin.
2. Firing Baird might alter the direction of the franchise. Hard to see that as a negative thing though.
3. The Royals had their only winning season since 1994 under Baird
4. He's a nice guy and a hard worker
The Royals have given Baird 5 years to improve this team and that hasn't happened. In fact, it's gotten worse. Last year, Baird developed a plan to make the team competitive. However, it's a bit late for that. The Royals don't have the pieces necessary to make the plan successful. Overall, Baird has done a less than satisfactory job in every aspect of his job. A below-average GM won't cut it for a small-market team. You need to have one of the best GMs and scouting departments to get the best, cheap talent available.
Major Change #2: Fix the Starting Pitching Problem
I have no idea why the Royals can't develop starters, but they have been woefully inept at this. The young starters never seem to be able to overcome the adjustment period and just get worse. Greinke seems like the easiest starting pitcher to develop. He has good makeup, good control, and good stuff.
To fix this problem, the Royals will need to completely overhaul everything associated with developing starters. The Royals need to take a long, hard look at how they are developing their starters. The Royals should also take a look at organizations like the A's and see if they can learn anything from them. This team isn't going anywhere if the Royals can't develop starting pitching.
I encourage you to let Dan Glass hear your opinion on whether or not Baird should remain the general manager of the team. The Royals seem very comfortable with Allard Baird. But, if Mr. Glass becomes aware of the fans displeasure with the GM, then perhaps this will hasten much needed changes in the organization. Here is the e-mail for Dan Glass and his fax number:
dan.glass@kcroyals.comFAX Number: (816) 924-0347
-Note: Faxes are probably more likely to be read. E-Mails can be deleted easily.
